Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems

Yu, Wusheng; Hertel, Thomas W.; Preckel, Paul V.; Eales, James S.

doi:10.1016/s0264-9993(02)00086-x

Cited by 98 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Yu et al (2004) indicate that the Rotterdam model (Barten 1964;Theil, 1965) has become a prominent vehicle for the econometric analysis of patterns of consumer demand and rigorous testing of the utility maximisation theory. Barnett and Seck (2008) point out that the Rotterdam model gained prominence in food demand analysis, thanks to its locally flexible functional form.…”

Section: Orange Import Allocation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demand relationships in orange exports to Russia: a differential demand system approach focusing on Egypt

Hatab

2016

Agric Econ

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Recent years have witnessed closer diplomatic relations between Egypt and Russia, which have led to significant growth in the countries' bilateral agricultural trade. As a world-leading producer and exporter of oranges, these developments represent an opportunity for Egypt to promote its orange exports to Russia. Another emerging opportunity for Egypt to increase its share in the Russian market for imported oranges has been provided by import embargos imposed by Russia in recent years on agricultural and food commodities from several countries, creating a supply gap of around 25 % in the Russian orange market. To assess the competitiveness of Egyptian oranges and explore the potential export opportunities presented by the Russian market, this paper uses a Rotterdam import allocation model to analyse demand relationships among major orange suppliers to Russia during the period 1996-2014. The results show that in comparison with other orange suppliers, Egypt enjoys a strong comparative advantage in the export of oranges to Russia. The econometric results suggest that both Morocco and Egypt would benefit the most if Russia were to allocate a larger budget to the import of oranges. The expenditure elasticity estimates indicate that an increase in Russia's demand for imported oranges would lead to increases in the quantity of Egypt's orange exports, as well as in its share of the Russian orange market. Furthermore, cross-price elasticity estimates reveal that Egyptian oranges are substitutes for Turkish and South African oranges, implying that Russia has a tendency to switch to these two suppliers when Egyptian oranges become relatively expensive. In light of these results, the adoption of strategies to produce oranges sustainably and cost-effectively, upgrade the orange value chain, acquire processing technologies and enhance the technical and organisational capacity of farmers and exporters could be useful means for promoting exports and boosting the competitiveness of Egyptian oranges on the Russian market.

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Section: Orange Import Allocation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demand relationships in orange exports to Russia: a differential demand system approach focusing on Egypt

Hatab

2016

Agric Econ

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“…AIDADS is a demand system which allows the marginal budget shares to vary as a function of total expenditure. Recent work by Yu et al (2004) has demonstrated the superiority of AIDADS over other demand systems in projecting food demand, especially for long-term projections involving a wide range of countries.…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia

Zhai

Zhuang²

2012

Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific: How Can Countries Adapt?

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“…The parameters q and q de…ning the varying marginal budget shares of goods and services q in the consumers' total real expenditures in equation (39) are estimated by maximum likelihood as described in Cran…eld et al (2003) and Yu et al (2004). The parameters q de…ne the subsistence level of consumption 1 4 Note that the minimum age parameter, v, is not included in equation (49).…”

Section: Preferences and Welfarementioning

confidence: 99%

The Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use in the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma

Steinbuks

Hertel²

2012

SSRN Journal

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This study analyzes the optimal allocation of the world's land resources over the course of the next century in the dynamic forward-looking framework, which brings together distinct strands of economic, agronomic, and biophysical literature and incorporates key drivers a¤ecting global landuse. We show that, while some deforestation is optimal in the near term, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century under the baseline scenario. While the adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest e¤ect on global land use, when combined with high growth in energy prices they lead to signi…cant deforestation and higher GHG emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a GHG emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, the e¤ectiveness of such a pre-announced constraint is completely diluted by intertemporal substitution of deforestation which accelerates prior to imposition of the target. JEL: C61, Q15, Q23, Q26, Q40, Q54

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Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems

Cited by 98 publications

References 24 publications

Demand relationships in orange exports to Russia: a differential demand system approach focusing on Egypt

Demand relationships in orange exports to Russia: a differential demand system approach focusing on Egypt

Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia

The Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use in the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma

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