Projection in Politicians' Perceptions of Public Opinion

Abstract

Research has shown that politicians' perceptions of public opinion are subject to social projection. When estimating the opinions of voters on a broad range of issues, politicians tend to assume that their own preferences are shared by voters. This article revisits this finding and adds to the literature in three ways. First, it makes a conceptual contribution by bringing together different approaches to the analysis of projection and its consequences. Second, relying on data from surveys with politicians (n = 866) in four countries (Belgium, Canada, Germany, and Switzerland) conducted between March 2018 and September 2019, it shows that there is more projection in politicians' estimations of their partisan electorate than in their estimations of the general public or of their geographic district. Third, comparing the data on politician projection with data from parallel surveys with citizens, the article reveals that—at least in three out of the four countries studied here—elected politicians are not better at avoiding erroneous projection than ordinary citizens. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the workings of representative democracy.

Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient

“…Within the recent revival of interest in perceptual accuracy, most of these have been tested empirically. See, for example, Pereira (2021) and Sevenans et al (2023) on how projection affects politicians' estimations (cognitive balance), or Walgrave et al (2022) on whether more senior politicians hold more accurate public opinion perceptions (personality characteristics). However, the main contextual variable identified by Clausen-issue salience-has so far received little attention.…”