Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors

Abstract

While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, we estimate mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location, however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, mid-summer decreases in abundance may be off-set by shorter extrinsic incubation periods resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.

Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change

“…Climate change will undoubtedly influence the extent to which viruses are spread by endemic mosquitoes in the future, with increases in numbers and populations of endemic species (including those associated with arboviruses) and with introduction of new species (and associated pathogens) into Canada. Predicting how MBDs will respond to changes in climate is challenging: mosquitoes, reservoirs and the environment differ in their dependencies on climate change (54,55). This means that even modest climate changes may drive large increases in arbovirus transmission (1,56).…”

Augmentation du risque de maladies endémiques au Canada transmises par des moustiques en raison du changement climatique

“…Le changement climatique influera sans aucun doute sur la propagation des virus par des moustiques endémiques dans l'avenir, en raison de l'augmentation du nombre et des types d'espèces endémiques (y compris celles qui sont associées aux arbovirus) et l'apparition de nouvelles espèces (et de pathogènes associés) au Canada. Il est difficile de prévoir la façon dont les maladies transmises par des moustiques réagiront au changement climatique : les moustiques, les réservoirs et l'environnement réagissent différemment au changement climatique (54,55). Cela signifie que même un changement climatique modéré peut entraîner une forte augmentation de la transmission des arbovirus (1,56 Les changements prévus chez les moustiques et dans les maladies transmises par des moustiques causés par le changement climatique font ressortir la nécessité de poursuivre la surveillance et la recherche afin d'assurer une évaluation opportune et exacte des risques pour la santé publique des Canadiens.…”

Advanced Safety and Genetic Stability in Mice of a Novel DNA-Launched Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus Vaccine with Rearranged Structural Genes

“…In a population-based study, the seroprevalence of VEEV has been reported to be as high as 75% in some endemic regions [5]. Climate change may be contributing to the increased geographical distribution of Culex mosquitos, increasing the population of humans and equine at risk for contracting VEEV [6][7][8].…”