Projection of Climate Change Scenarios in Different Temperature Zones in the Eastern Monsoon Region, China

Abstract

The Eastern Monsoon Region of China is sensitive to climate change because of its special location. In this study, the Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) tool was used to simulate and project future climate change scenarios in different temperate zones in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China. The performances of the single General Circulation Model (GCM) and the GCMs ensemble from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were compared, and the capability of the ASD model was evaluated. The simple mathematical averaging ensemble of GCMs is superior to the single GCM and to the other two weighted ensembles. The ASD model was capable of presenting the temporal and spatial variation of four variables (precipitation, mean air temperature, maximum and minimum air temperature) during both the calibration and validation periods. The performance of the ASD model varied among the different temperate zones. In the simulated future scenarios, the air temperature in the four zones showed an upward trend. Except for the subtropical zone, there was a tendency for increased precipitation in both the warm temperate zone and the cold temperate and middle temperate zones. Of particular interest is that, in the subtropical zone, the precipitation will decline in the future, whereas the air temperature (especially the maximum air temperature) will increase, which may put more pressure on water resource situations in this area.

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