Projection of coastal floods in 2050 Jakarta

Takagi, Hiroshi; Esteban, Miguel; Mikami, Takahito; Fujii, Daisuke

doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2016.05.003

Cited by 108 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…An abnormal high tide with a maximum amplitude of 60 cm that caused inundation over a wide area of Yokohama Port in October 2006 is likely to have been generated by a shelf wave [33]. The extensive coastal floods that occurred on November 2007 in Jakarta are considered to have been induced by an abnormal tidal component up to about 20 cm, which were likely caused by a La Niña event, the 18.6 year lunar nodal high-tide cycle, and other abnormal tide mechanisms that simultaneously took place [34]. Shifting surface winds, the expansion of warming ocean water, and the addition of melting ice can alter ocean currents which, in turn, lead to changes in sea level that vary from place to place.…”

Section: Yearly Rate Of Water Level Rise and Land Subsidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence: Impacts on Flood Projections for the Mekong Delta’s Largest City

2016

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Abstract:The present paper demonstrates that inundation levels in the Mekong Delta's largest city, Can Tho, are predominantly determined by ocean tides, sea-level rise, and land subsidence. Our analysis of inundation patterns projects that the duration of inundation at an important road in the city will continue to rise from the current total of 72 inundated days per year to 270 days by 2030 and 365 days by 2050. This is attributed to the combined influence of sea-level rise and land subsidence, which causes relative water level rises at a rate of 22.3 mm·yr −1 . People in the Mekong Delta have traditionally lived with floods, and thus there is certain resilience among residents in coping with small floods. At present, daily maximum inundation depth, which is generally shallower than 10 cm on the road, seems to be still manageable; however, our analysis indicates that this will start drastically increasing in the coming decades and reach an average depth of 70 cm by 2050. Effective and well-planned actions to mitigate the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise are urgently required, otherwise, local inhabitants will encounter an unmanageable increase in inundation depth and duration in the coming decades. This study, which considers both sea-level rise and land subsidence, suggests that inundation depth and duration are projected to rise much faster than those indicated by previous studies, which only consider sea-level rise.

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Section: Yearly Rate Of Water Level Rise and Land Subsidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence: Impacts on Flood Projections for the Mekong Delta’s Largest City

2016

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“…Therefore, the present model cannot be used to reproduce such an abnormally high water level induced by a high river discharge. Additionally, water levels in deltas are influenced by the sea-level rise and ENSO events [12][13][14]. The construction of dams will inevitably alter the variability of the seasonal flow in the upper Mekong River.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow Intensification Induced by Tidal Oscillations in Tributaries of the Mekong River

Takagi

Trí

Tỷ

et al. 2016

WIT Transactions on State-of-the-Art in Science and Engineering

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Strong currents induced by tidal oscillations have been overlooked in previous flood-risk assessments of the Mekong River. To discuss the potential disaster risk associated with tidal-flow intensification, this study applied ocean tidal modelling to a typical dry season when the tidal regime is predominant compared to the fluvial regime. The model can forecast tidal levels and velocities at a given time and location in the urban area of the Mekong Delta, which is characterized by many tributaries, channels, and low-lying lands, in addition to the main stream of the Mekong River. Numerical simulations revealed that a rapid flow, which could exceed 1 m/s in both the ebb and flood tidal phases, likely occurred along the tributary. Although this study only focused on the tidal regime, such locally intensified flows can be further amplified by a high river discharge or storm surge, having potentially dangerous consequences, such as difficulties in handling ships and small ships being capsized.

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“…The model is also used in simulating flood [9], coastal, estuary, and river processes [10], and environmental control [11].…”

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Tidal Current Power Potency in Kelabat Bay, Indonesia

Ajiwibowo¹,

Pratama²,

Wurjanto³

2017

IJET

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Abstract-Indonesian energy production is dominated by non-renewable sources. To promote exploration of more sustainable energy sources, the current study focuses on determination of energy from tidal-current-induced power. The study includes field measurement, numerical modeling using MIKE3 (personal license), tidal model analysis, and power calculation. The field measurements include bathymetric, tidal, and current velocity surveys using an Argonaut-XR type Acoustic Current Doppler Profiler. The narrowest part of the bay is selected as the area of interest. Validation of the water elevation and current numerical model results with field measurements shows good agreement, with average errors of 5.34% for water elevation validation and 8.8% for tidal current validation. The model shows that the eastern part of the area of interest has the highest tidal-current velocity magnitude. The average and peak velocity magnitudes are 0.373 and 1.24 m/s, respectively. A Gorlov helical turbine is selected as the turbine for energy harvesting, because it has suitable height and cut-in-speed characteristics. Although the calculated generated power can only supply half of the average Indonesian consumption per capita, it is hoped that this study will provide an initial step toward sustainable power harvesting in Indonesia.Keyword -Numerical modeling, Ocean renewable energy, Tidal current, Kelabat Bay, Indonesia I. INTRODUCTION Global climate changes have been seen worldwide lately, mainly caused by mass production of nonsustainable energy in most nations including Indonesia. During 2014, the share of non-renewable energy production in Indonesia was six times higher [1] than the share of renewable production. To overcome the negative effects of climate change, the development of infrastructure for harvesting renewable energy is deemed important. The issue is how to harvest the energy as efficiently as possible. Ocean-based renewable energy should receive the foremost attention since it has abundant potential.Previous studies show that tidal current is one of the most reliable forms of potential ocean-based energy sources among ocean thermal and wave energy sources. The technology is more accessible and well-established. Studies of tidal current power extraction have been well-developed in the past few years across the globe, for example in Scotland [2], India [3], Japan [4], Canada [5], and several others [6].The potency of tidal current in Kelabat Bay (Province of Kepulauan Bangka Belitung of Indonesia) will be assessed. The scope of this study covers several areas such as field measurement, numerical modeling, tidal model analysis, turbine selection, and power calculation.II. STUDY LOCATION Kelabat Bay is located at the northern part of Bangka Island, as shown in Fig. 1. Kelabat Bay is located in the range of 565,000-591,000 mE and 9,799,000-9,832,000 mS at region 48 south of UTM coordinate. Kelabat Bay links the districts of Jebus and Kelapa of West Bangka Regency and the districts of Belinyu and Riau Silip of Bangka Regency....

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Projection of coastal floods in 2050 Jakarta

Cited by 108 publications

References 25 publications

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence: Impacts on Flood Projections for the Mekong Delta’s Largest City

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence: Impacts on Flood Projections for the Mekong Delta’s Largest City

Flow Intensification Induced by Tidal Oscillations in Tributaries of the Mekong River

Assessment of Tidal Current Power Potency in Kelabat Bay, Indonesia

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