Projection of Extreme Wave Climate Change under Global Warming

Mori, Nobuhito; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mase, Hajime; Tom, Tracey H.; Oku, Y.

doi:10.3178/hrl.4.15

Cited by 220 publications

(147 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…The few global studies discussing large-scale projections of waves in view of climate change mainly focus on average wave conditions [Hemer et al, 2013a]. In global studies changes in extreme wave conditions have been marginally explored by focusing on high percentile values or on low return levels [Mori et al, 2010;Hemer et al, 2013aHemer et al, , 2013bSemedo et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2014;Perez et al, 2015], omitting the rare extremes that may give rise to catastrophic impacts, although more detailed local studies exist [De Winter et al, 2012;Lionello et al, 2012;Casas-Prat and Sierra, 2013;Erikson et al, 2015;Shimura et al, 2016].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Mentaschi

Vousdoukas

Voukouvalas

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

172

153

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In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long‐term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low‐lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Mentaschi

Vousdoukas

Voukouvalas

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

172

153

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“…Because of computational constraints, dynamical approaches were unavailable on a global scale up until recently. Mori et al (2010) presented the first dynamical global wave climate projection. They ran the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model (Booij et al 1999) for three different time slices: present, near-future, and future conditions at the end of the twenty-first century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century

et al. 2012

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Wind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far, long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model [Wave Ocean Model (WAM)] is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present-day and potential future climate conditions represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate toward the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in midlatitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the middle to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward toward a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.

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“…Current guidance in the U.S. (USACE 2011) requires consideration of three sea level rise scenarios, where the highest assumes a global sea-level rise of 1.5 meters during the 21st Century. Without a refinement of such projections (including storminess and wave climate projections (Mori et al 2010), planning and implementation of appropriate resilience measures will be reactive at best. While better data is required, uncertainty in decision-making will also have to be factored into risk-assessment at the local levels.…”

Section: Improve Local Climate Projections and Improve Conditions Formentioning

confidence: 99%

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

Becker

Acciaro

Asariotis³

et al. 2013

Climatic Change

135

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Projection of Extreme Wave Climate Change under Global Warming

Cited by 220 publications

References 8 publications

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

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