Projection of future typhoons landing on Japan based on a stochastic typhoon model utilizing AGCM projections

Abstract

Abstract:This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences between statistical characteristics of present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modeling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Japan, especially in three major bay areas, will decrease and the mean value of typhoon central atmospheric pressure will not change significantly. An important point is that the arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.

Extreme cyclone wave climate in the Southwest Pacific Ocean: Influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and projected climate change

“…Like this study, there are several studies that have further used SCMs to undertake site-specific extreme-value analyses of tropical cyclone hazard (e.g. Russell, 1971;Georgiou et al, 1983;Vickery and Twisdale, 1995;Chouinard et al, 1997;Vickery et al, 2000a, b;Wang and Chan, 2002;Madsen and Jakobsen, 2004;James and Mason, 2005;Emanuel et al, 2006;Rumpf et al, 2007Rumpf et al, , 2009Yasuda et al, 2010;McInnes et al, 2014). There are few published studies where cyclone hazards have been statistically quantified in the SW Pacific.…”

“…Russell (1971) applied the first SCM to predict cyclone wind speed, with numerous examples since (e.g. Georgiou et al, 1983;Bretschneider, 1990;Vickery et al, 2000b;James and Mason, 2005;Emanuel et al, 2006;Hall and Jewson, 2007;Rumpf et al, 2007Rumpf et al, , 2010Yasuda et al, 2010;McInnes et al, 2014). To provide frequency-magnitude relationships necessary for hazard exposure quantification, a typical SCM approach is to fit statistical distributions to the best-track observations to produce a cyclone climatology.…”

Estimation of a possible maximum flood event in the Tone River basin, Japan caused by a tropical cyclone

“…There has been considerable research on the changes in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the global warming environment (e.g. Murakami et al (2012); Yasuda et al (2010); Oku et al (2010) and Mori et al (2010)). The fifth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change calls for TCs to be examined not only in terms of their meteorological aspects, but also in terms of their potential impacts on society.…”

Climate Change Adaptation in Tokyo Bay: The Case for a Storm Surge Barrier

“…To understand how future increases in tropical cyclone intensity will affect storm surge it is necessary to obtain the future probability distribution functions of the central pressure of these events in the target region. Thepresent work applied the research of Yasuda et al (2010a), who provide the present and future expected distribution of typhoon intensity for storms around Tokyo Bay in the year 2100 (See Figure 3). SSTs were used as an external forcing of the AGCM as a bottom boundary condition.…”

“…The observed SST from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre (HadlSST) were used for the present climate conditions, and the ensemble mean SSTs from CMIP3 multi-model projections of SRES A1b were employed for the future climate experiments. According to the probability distribution functions indicated by Yasuda et al (2010a) it is possible to obtain that a 1 in 100 year storm in Tokyo Bay (i.e. the storm in the year 2100 than would be equivalent to the Taisho typhoon) would have a minimum central pressure of 933.9hPa instead of the historically recorded minimum value of 952.7hPa (see Hoshino et al, 2011) One of the main problems of the model employed relates to the determination of the radius of maximum wind speeds r max , which is necessary for the correct resolution of the Myers formula (1954).…”