Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: water withdrawal / Projection des ressources en eau mondiales futures selon les scénarios du RSSE: prélèvement d'eau

Shen, Yanjun; Oki, Taikan; Utsumi, Nobuyuki; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hanasaki, Naota

doi:10.1623/hysj.53.1.11

Cited by 176 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The following assessment is based on climate projections of GCMs of IPCC in its 4 th (CMIP3) and 5 th (CMIP5) assessment reports, which has been used to estimate future potential water withdrawals according to projected socio-economic driving factors (Shen at al., 2008). According to the projected, multi-model mean changes from 1980s to 2080s for the SRES A1B climate change scenarios, northern and southern Africa will experience decreased precipitation, evaporation, and runoff and soil moisture ( Figure 6).…”

Section: How Would Climate Change Impact Future Water Resources Of Afmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts, vulnerability of drought-prone regions, water resources and capacity building for Africa

Gan

Ito

Hülsmann

et al. 2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and landuse to drought-prone regions in West, Southern, and Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid-20 th century. Based on the 4 th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, and that of the 5 th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21 st Century and could become more vulnerable to impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase up to 8 o C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillation which could also affect water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions, are also discussed. Given traditional climate and hydrologic data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill in the data gap for Africa in future.

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Section: How Would Climate Change Impact Future Water Resources Of Afmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts, vulnerability of drought-prone regions, water resources and capacity building for Africa

Gan

Ito

Hülsmann

et al. 2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…For countries in which time series data were available, we conducted a linear interpolation to fill the gaps between data. Elsewhere, discontinuous data or data for a single year were calculated by multiplying the regionally scaled evolving ratio of withdrawal from Shiklomanov (1999). In this manner, we prepared water withdrawal data for various countries for .…”

Section: Industrial and Domestic Water Withdrawalmentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of global net irrigation water requirements from various water supply sources to sustain irrigation: rivers and reservoirs (1960–2050)

Yoshikawa

Cho

Yamada

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Water supply sources for irrigation (e.g. rivers and reservoirs) are critically important for agricultural productivity. The current rapid increase in irrigation water use is considered unsustainable and threatens food production. In this study, we estimated the time-varying dependence of irrigation water requirements from water supply sources, with a particular focus on variations in irrigation area during past and future periods using the global water resources model, H08. The H08 model can simulate water requirements on a daily basis at a resolution of 1.0 • × 1.0 • latitude and longitude. The sources of irrigation water requirements in the past simulations were specified using four categories: rivers (RIV), large reservoirs (LR) with a storage capacity greater than 1.0 × 10 9 m 3 , mediumsize reservoirs (MSR) with storage capacities ranging from 1.0 × 10 9 m 3 to 3.0 × 10 6 m 3 , and non-local non-renewable blue water (NNBW). The simulated results from 1960 to 2001 showed that RIV, MSR and NNBW increased significantly from the 1960s to the early 1990s globally, but LR increased at a relatively low rate. After the early 1990s, the increase in RIV declined as it approached a critical limit, due to the continued expansion of irrigation area. MSR and NNBW increased significantly, during the same time period, following the expansion of the irrigation area and the increased storage capacity of the medium-size reservoirs. We also estimated future irrigation water requirements from the above four water supply sources and an additional water supply source (ADD) in three future simulation designs; irrigation area change, climate change, and changes in both irrigation area and climate. ADD was defined as a future increase in NNBW. After the 2020s, MSR was predicted to approach the critical limit, and ADD would account for 11-23 % of the total requirements in the 2040s.

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“…For agricultural water demand, two different approaches coexist: one based on statistical projections of irrigated areas at the country scale (Shen et al 2008), and another based on the modeling of crops biophysical water needs (Döll and Siebert 2002;Alcamo et al 2003Alcamo et al , 2007Strzepek et al 2013;Hanasaki et al 2013a). For the domestic sector, existing projections are mainly based on statistical approaches at the country scale, in which demand evolves with GDP per capita as the country develops.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the domestic sector, existing projections are mainly based on statistical approaches at the country scale, in which demand evolves with GDP per capita as the country develops. Demand can either be directly estimated as a function of population and GDP per capita Ward et al 2010), or domestic water use intensity per capita is estimated as a function of GDP per capita (Alcamo et al 2003;Shen et al 2008) and is then multiplied by the projected population. Other country-dependent variables (e.g., climatic variables) can also be included in the estimations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Basin-Scale Distributed Irrigation and Domestic Water Demands and Values: A Generic Method for Large-Scale Modeling

Neverre

Dumas

2016

Water Econs. Policy

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International audienceThis paper presents a methodology to project irrigation and domestic water demands on a regional to global scale, in terms of both quantity and economic value. Projections are distributed at the water basin scale. Irrigation water demand is projected under climate change. It is simply computed as the difference between crop potential evapotranspiration for the different stages of the growing season and available precipitation. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops using average yields. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-part inverse demand functions in which volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water cost data. This generic methodology can be easily applied to large-scale regions, in particular developing regions where reliable data are scarce. As an illustration, it is applied to Algeria, at the 2050 horizon, for demands associated to reservoirs. Our results show that domestic demand is projected to become a major water consumption sector. The methodology is meant to be integrated into large-scale hydroeconomic models, to determine inter-sectorial and inter-temporal water allocation based on economic valuation

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Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: water withdrawal / Projection des ressources en eau mondiales futures selon les scénarios du RSSE: prélèvement d'eau

Cited by 176 publications

References 15 publications

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts, vulnerability of drought-prone regions, water resources and capacity building for Africa

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts, vulnerability of drought-prone regions, water resources and capacity building for Africa

An assessment of global net irrigation water requirements from various water supply sources to sustain irrigation: rivers and reservoirs (1960–2050)

Projecting Basin-Scale Distributed Irrigation and Domestic Water Demands and Values: A Generic Method for Large-Scale Modeling

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