Projection of mortality attributed to heat and cold; the impact of climate change in a dry region of Iran, Kerman

Aboubakri, Omid; Khanjani, Narges; Jahani, Yunes; Bakhtiari, Bahram; Mesgari, Ebrahim

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138700

Cited by 20 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Some studies have involved the assessment of future risks related to the mean temperature or DTR, but many are limited by factors such as restricted study locations [17,18], the use of emission scenarios without socioeconomic assumptions (e.g. RCP scenarios) [19,20], disregard of future population changes [17,21], and the use of single scenarios/general circulation models (GCMs) for analyses [22,23], which complicate the generation of results that are accurate and comparable across the entire country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

All-cause mortality attributable to long-term changes in mean temperature and diurnal temperature variation in China: a nationwide quasi-experimental study

Ai,

Lu,

Liu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Background: Previous studies have demonstrated an association between short-term exposure to ambient temperature and mortality. However, the long-term effects of elevated temperature and temperature variability on mortality have remained somewhat elusive in epidemiological studies.Methods: We conducted a comprehensive epidemiological study utilizing Chinese population census data from 2000 and 2010. Census-derived demographic and socioeconomic factors were paired with temperature data from the European Re-Analysis Land Dataset across 2823 counties. We employed a difference-in-difference approach to quantitatively examine the relationship between all-cause mortality and annual exposure to mean temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR). Additionally, we evaluated the potential effects of socioeconomic and environmental covariate modifications on this relationship and calculated the attributable mortality. Lastly, we projected excess deaths attributable to annual temperature exposure under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs, e.g., SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585).Results: For each 1℃ rise in annual mean temperature and DTR, the mortality risk could increase by 6.12% (95% CI: 0.84%, 11.69%) and 7.72% (95% CI: 3.75%, 11.84%), respectively. Counties with high labor-force ratios and high NO2 and O3 concentrations appeared to be sensitive to the annual mean temperature and DTR. Climate warming from 2000 to 2010 may have resulted in 5.85 and 14.46 additional deaths per 10,000 people attributable to changes in annual mean temperature and DTR, respectively. The excess mortality related to changes in annual mean temperature and DTR is expected to increase in the future, with special attention warranted for long-term temperature changes in Southwest China. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that long-term mean temperature and DTR could significantly impact mortality rates. Given the spatial heterogeneity of increased mortality risk, the formulation of region-specific strategies to tackle climate change is crucial.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

All-cause mortality attributable to long-term changes in mean temperature and diurnal temperature variation in China: a nationwide quasi-experimental study

Ai,

Lu,

Liu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…This corresponds to a 10% change in the RRs at the temperature that is 10 • C lower or higher than the cold/heat threshold and a 20% change in the RRs at the temperature that is 20 • C lower/higher than the cold/heat threshold. Adjusting the RRs of 10%-30% has been used in previous studies (Huynen and Martens, 2015;Aboubakri et al, 2020;Rai et al, 2022).…”

Section: Modification Of the Risk Function Under Adaptation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-Informed Adaptation into Temperature-Related Mortality Projections Under Climate Change

Wan

Hajat

Doherty

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…From a climate and development perspective, Roozkin is significant, due to growing evidence of climatic change at the regional level (Aboubakri et al, 2020;Eskandari Damaneh et al, 2019;Khanjani & Bahrampour, 2013;Mesbahzadeh et al, 2019). Recent data gathered from the nearest synoptic automatic weather station to the study area (Miandeh Jiroft Station: 57°′ ′′ 24 ′ 00 ′′ N, 28°35 ′ 00 ′′ E, Altitude: 639 m) show decreasing levels of precipitation during the years 2006-2020, with rainfall in the last four years less than the 3-year moving average of the region, as shown in Figure 2.…”

Section: Case Study Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Harnessing indigenous knowledge for climate change-resilient water management – lessons from an ethnographic case study in Iran

Ghorbani

Eskandari-Damaneh

Cotton

et al. 2021

Climate and Development

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Through an in-depth ethnographic case study, we explore water management practices within the Jiroft County province in Iran and discuss the applicability of indigenous knowledge of regional water management to the resource governance of arid regions across the world. We explore, through qualitative analysis, the relationship between community social structure, indigenous knowledge, water management technologies and practices, and water governance rules under conditions of anthropogenic climate change. From participant observational and interview data (n = 32), we find that historically-dependent community roles establish a social contract for water distribution. Cultural conventions establish linked hierarchies of water ownership, profit-sharing and social responsibility; collectively they construct an equitable system of role-sharing, social benefit distribution, socioecological resilience and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change-induced drought. We conclude that the combination of hierarchical land ownership-based water distribution and what we term 'bilateral compensatory mutual assistance' for the lowest-profit agricultural water users, provides a model of spontaneous common pool resource management that bolsters community drought resilience. We use this case to proffer recommendations for adapting other centralized, grey infrastructure and regulatory models of water management from lessons learned from this spontaneous adaptive management case.

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Projection of mortality attributed to heat and cold; the impact of climate change in a dry region of Iran, Kerman

Cited by 20 publications

References 52 publications

All-cause mortality attributable to long-term changes in mean temperature and diurnal temperature variation in China: a nationwide quasi-experimental study

All-cause mortality attributable to long-term changes in mean temperature and diurnal temperature variation in China: a nationwide quasi-experimental study

Integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-Informed Adaptation into Temperature-Related Mortality Projections Under Climate Change

Harnessing indigenous knowledge for climate change-resilient water management – lessons from an ethnographic case study in Iran

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