Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from <scp>CMIP5</scp> model output

Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Räisänen, Jouni; Venäläinen, Ari; Kämäräinen, Matti

doi:10.1002/joc.4535

Cited by 77 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Decreases in the length of the cold season can result in major changes in vegetation and have a variety of impacts on distribution, abundance, migration and overwintering of high-latitude species [87][88][89]. Vegetation in northern Fennoscandia is characterized by coniferous forests, birch forests and open tundra.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Kivinen

Rasmus

Jylhä

et al. 2017

Climate

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Abstract:We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914Fennoscandia in -2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013), compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4%-9% of all extremely cold days) and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36%-42% of all extremely warm days). A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Kivinen

Rasmus

Jylhä

et al. 2017

Climate

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“…There are various base temperatures used for calculating the GDD and GS, among which 10 °C is typically used for China (Liu et al, ; Yang et al, ; Yin et al, 2017a) because forests and crops in many regions of China would grow rapidly if T d remained above 10 °C (Huang, ). There is still no universally accepted method to calculate the GDD and GS (Linderholm, ; Qian et al, ; Ruosteenoja et al, ; Sabziparvar and Jahromi, ). Applying a 5‐day running mean method (Yin et al, ), which had been tested and widely used for calculating the GDD and GS (Linderholm, ; Liu et al, ; Yang et al, ; Potopová et al, ), the T d on a horizontal grid with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution is used to simulate the annual GDD and GS above 10 °C.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergent responses of thermal growing degree‐days and season to projected warming over China

Deng

Yin

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Thermal conditions, such as thermal growing degree‐days (GDD) and growing season (GS), have primary effects on vegetation growth. In this study, changes in GDD and GS during 1961–2099 in China have been projected using the daily mean temperatures derived from five general circulation models. The multi‐model mean values generally capture the spatio‐temporal changes in GDD and GS during 1961–2005 and are thus used for predicting the thermal conditions in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs). The GDD and GS are found to increase with warming, with stronger GDD enhancement in south and southwest China and larger GS extension in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Plateau. On average, nationally, the GDD increase and GS extension in the long term (2071–2099) range from 279.1 °C·d and 16.5 days for RCP 2.6 to 964.4 °C·d and 50.3 days for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981–2010. Advances in the start of the growing season would drive the GS extension in the mountainous area in northeast China, as well as south and southwest China. On the contrary, the delay at the end of the growing season would drive the GS extension in northwest China and the regions between northeast China and the tropic of Cancer. An analysis under RCP 8.5 suggests that the temperature sensitivity of GDD would increase from the near term (2011–2040) to the long term for the eastern monsoon zone (237.5to 262.1 °C·d/°C) and the northwest arid/semi‐arid zone (162.3 to 184.0 °C·d/°C). However, the sensitivity of GS to the warming would decrease from 10.9 to 8.4 days/°C and 9.1 to 6.8 days/°C for these two regions, respectively. As thermal conditions intensify, temperature zones in eastern China would progressively shift northward.

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“…Recent studies have addressed the projection of degree‐days for different global regions (You et al, ; Erhardt, ). In Europe, such studies have usually focused on the length of the growing season (Ruosteenoja et al, ) and especially concerning grapevines (Moriondo et al, ; Fraga et al, ). To the best of our knowledge, to date there have been no published studies about future tendencies of HDD and CDD over the entire European continent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes of heating and cooling degree‐days in Europe from 1981 to 2100

Spinoni

Vogt

Barbosa

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

171

116

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During the last decades, the effects of global warming have become apparent also in Europe, causing relevant impacts in many sectors. Under projected future global warming, such a tendency can be expected to persist until the end of this century and beyond. Identifying which climate-related impacts are likely to increase, and by how much, is an important element of any effective strategy for managing future climate risks. This study investigates whether energy demand for cooling and heating buildings can be expected to increase or decrease under climate change. Two indicators of weather-related energy consumption for heating and cooling buildings are considered: heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD). The evolution of these indicators has been analysed based on 11 high-resolution bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX simulations for two emission representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Both indicators have been validated over the period 1981-2010 using an independent data set that contains more than 4000 station data, showing very high correlation over most of Europe. Trends of HDD and CDD from 1981 to 2100, together with their uncertainties, are analysed. For both RCPs, all simulations project a significant decrease for HDD, especially over Scandinavia and European Russia, and an increase of CDD which peaks over the Mediterranean region and the Balkans. Overall, degree-day trends do not show remarkable differences if population weighting is applied. If a constant population scenario is considered, the decrease in HDD will outbalance the increase in CDD in the 21st century over most of Europe. Thus the related energy demand (expressed as Energy Degree-days, EDD) is expected to decrease. If, however, population projections over the 21st century are included in the calculations, it is shown that despite the persisting warming, EDD will increase over northern Europe, the Baltic countries, Great Britain, Ireland, Benelux, the Alps, Spain, and Cyprus, resulting in an overall increase in EDD over Europe.

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Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output

Cited by 77 publications

References 45 publications

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Divergent responses of thermal growing degree‐days and season to projected warming over China

Changes of heating and cooling degree‐days in Europe from 1981 to 2100

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