Projections of Changes in Atmospheric Conditions Leading to Storm Surges along the Coast of Santos, Brazil

Sondermann, Marcely; Chou, Sin Chan; Tavares, Priscila; Lyra, André; Marengo, José A.; Souza, Celia Regina de Gouveia

doi:10.3390/cli11090176

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Future changes in the frequency and intensity of these storm surges will raise the risk of disasters. According to Sondermann et al [6], based on the Eta regional model's downscaling of the Brazilian Earth System Model's (BESM's) [7] projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios, the storm surge events characterized by pattern 1 are expected to become more intense. However, these events will continue to be the least frequent in the future.…”

Section: Of 19mentioning

confidence: 99%

Four Storm Surge Cases on the Coast of São Paulo, Brazil: Weather Analyses and High-Resolution Forecasts

Chou,

Sondermann,

Chagas

et al. 2024

JMSE

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The coast of São Paulo, Brazil, is exposed to storm surges that can cause damage and floods. These storm surges are produced by slowly traveling cyclone–anticyclone systems. The motivation behind this work was the need to evaluate high-resolution forecasts of the mean sea-level pressure and 10 m winds, which are the major drivers of the wave model. This work is part of the activity in devising an early warning system for São Paulo coastal storm surges. For the evaluation, four case studies that had a major impact on the coast of São Paulo in 2020 were selected. Because storm surges that reach the coast may cause coastal flooding, precipitation forecasts were also evaluated. The mesoscale Eta model produces forecasts with a 5 km resolution for up to an 84 h lead time. The model was set up in a region that covers part of southeast and south Brazil. The ERA5 reanalysis was used to describe the large-scale synoptic conditions and to evaluate the weather forecasts. The cases showed a region in common between 35° S, 40° S and 35° W, 45° W where the low-pressure center deepened rapidly on the day before the highest waves reached the coast of São Paulo, with a mostly eastward, rather than northeastward, displacement of the associated surface cyclone and minimal or no tilt with height. The winds on the coast were the strongest on the day before the surge reached the coast of São Paulo, and then the winds weakened on the day of the maximum wave height. The pattern of the mean sea-level pressure and 10 m wind in the 36 h, 60 h, and 84 h forecasts agreed with the ERA5 reanalysis, but the pressure was slightly underestimated. In contrast, the winds along the coast were slightly overestimated. The 24 h accumulated precipitation pattern was also captured by the forecast, but was overestimated, especially at high precipitation rates. The 36 h forecasts showed the smallest error, but the growth in the error for longer lead times was small, which made the 84 h forecasts useful for driving wave models and other local applications, such as an early warning system.

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Section: Of 19mentioning

confidence: 99%

Four Storm Surge Cases on the Coast of São Paulo, Brazil: Weather Analyses and High-Resolution Forecasts

Chou,

Sondermann,

Chagas

et al. 2024

JMSE

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…For example, Quaill et al, (2019) observed the experiences of people with physical disabilities before, during and after a cyclone in Australia to provide input into implementing the Disability Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction (DiDRR) policy. In addition, Bell et al (2022) investigated the economy-wide repercussions of the biophysical damage due to Cyclone Debbie in Australia using multi-region economic input-output (MRIO) analysis to determine the storm's impact on supply chains (Sondermann et al, 2023). However, Bell et al (2022) determines TC-wind speed ARIs from a series of tropical cyclone datasets to predict the likelihood of extreme winds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the Development of Tropical Storm Nicholas based on Global and Regional Climate Data

Wahyuni,

Shabrina,

Lobma

et al. 2023

For. Geo.

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This paper studies the simulation of Cyclone Nicholas that occurred close to the coastal area of Western Australia and fell on the mainland of Southwestern Australia. The simulation was conducted via a dynamical downscaling model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), to obtain a higher resolution with reference to the regional climate data. The model simulation is generated using a global reanalysis of climate data for the initial and lateral boundary conditions. We investigated the response of the tropical storm to the model regarding the track and intensity using a modified Kyklop method that appears more appropriate for a landfall cyclone. Our study suggests that the regional climate data computed by the model deviates from the storm track of the global climate data forcing field. In this study, the track of the simulated storm is parallel to the satellite data, but it is shifted slightly to the east, closer to the mainland. Nevertheless, the model simulation can implement the intensity of the storm as strongly as the observation, while the forcing data delivers substantial underestimation.

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Projections of Changes in Atmospheric Conditions Leading to Storm Surges along the Coast of Santos, Brazil

Cited by 2 publications

References 33 publications

Four Storm Surge Cases on the Coast of São Paulo, Brazil: Weather Analyses and High-Resolution Forecasts

Four Storm Surge Cases on the Coast of São Paulo, Brazil: Weather Analyses and High-Resolution Forecasts

Investigation of the Development of Tropical Storm Nicholas based on Global and Regional Climate Data

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