Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs

Abstract

The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter‐annual variability over the Mediterranean region were studied. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070–2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate model outputs of the World Climate Research Program's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 multi‐model dataset were used in this work. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios' outputs were used in future climate model projections. Future surface mean air temperatures of the larger Mediterranean basin increase mostly in summer and least in winter, and precipitation amounts decrease in all seasons at almost all parts of the basin. Future climate signals for air temperature and total precipitation values are much larger than the inter‐model standard deviation. Inter‐annual temperature variability increases evidently in summer season and decreases in the northern part of the domain in the winter season, while precipitation variability increases in almost all parts of domain. Probability distribution functions are found to be shifted and flattened for future period compared to the reference period. This indicates that the occurrence of frequency and intensity of high temperatures and heavy precipitation events will likely increase in the future period.

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

“…The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are expected to be strongly affected by climate warming, enhancing the already hot and dry environmental conditions (Sanchez et al 2004;Fang et al 2008;Giorgi and Lionello 2008;Önol and Semazzi 2009;Lelieveld et al 2012;Almazroui 2013Almazroui : Önol et al 2014Basha et al 2015;Ozturk et al 2015). Assessments of past climate trends in the MENA often suffered from restricted availability of meteorological data sets, and hence are associated with low confidence (IPCC 2013).…”

Dendroecological study of Pinus halepensis and Pinus pinea in northeast coastal dunes in Tunisia according to distance from the shoreline and dieback intensity

“…Several climate models indicate that drought frequency and intensity are expected to increase in the Mediterranean basin (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008;Lelieveld et al, 2012;Ozturk et al, 2015). In sensitive areas such as the coastal dunes of Rimel and Menzel Belgacem, maximum temperature is significantly negative in late winter and spring, high precipitation from autumn of the previous year to mid-April of the current year has a significantly positive influence on tree-ring width.…”

Anthropogenic disturbance and rainfall variation threaten the stability of plant–ant interactions in the Brazilian Caatinga

“…the invariability in ecosystem function over time, is often beneficial for the reliable provision of ecosystem functioning and services, and is important to the ability of ecosystems to deal with future disturbance events (Holling 1973, Carpenter et al 2001, Colwell et al 2008, Magurran et al 2010, Mori 2016. Global climate projections have been becoming increasingly concerning, with not only increases in global mean temperature and changes in global rainfall regimes, but also increasingly variable conditions and a higher frequency of extreme weather events (IPCC 2014, Otzurk et al 2015. Global climate projections have been becoming increasingly concerning, with not only increases in global mean temperature and changes in global rainfall regimes, but also increasingly variable conditions and a higher frequency of extreme weather events (IPCC 2014, Otzurk et al 2015.…”