Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons

Abstract

BackgroundWhile demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea.MethodsAfter investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected.ResultsThe number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040—an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309—an increase of −24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario.ConclusionCardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by analyzing the various factors affecting the supply of cardiovascular surgeons, an active intervention of policies can be prescribed for the areas that have failed to meet the appropriate market distributions.

Development of Models for Regional Cardiac Surgery Centers

“…Based on the number of cardiac surgery-related patients and the 2040 population estimate, cardiac surgery demand for each region was projected (please refer to the study by Lee et al [13], which is included in the same volume of this journal, for the method of demand projection). Regional cardiac surgery center models that could be applied to each region were proposed based on the 6 treatment areas (excluding the metropolitan area) and the projected cardiac surgery demand.…”

“…Population projection data from Statistics Korea and medical expenses data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service were used for these predictions. Detailed results of demand projections can be found in the study by Lee et al [13], which is included in the same issue of this journal.…”

Postoperative 20% albumin vs standard care and acute kidney injury after high-risk cardiac surgery (ALBICS): study protocol for a randomised trial

“…This study also demonstrated odds ratios of in-hospital mortality equal to 3.17 in Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) stage 1 and 43.77 in AKIN stage 3. Given that over one million patients undergo cardiac surgery each year, CSA-AKI presents a significant burden of disease [ 2 ].…”

“…Study data was collected and managed using REDCap electronic data capture tool hosted and managed by Helix (Monash University) [ 39 , 40 ]. REDCap is a secure, web-based software platform designed to support data capture for research studies, providing [ 1 ] an intuitive interface for validated data capture [ 2 ]; audit trails for tracking data manipulation and export procedures [ 3 ]; automated export procedures for seamless data downloads to common statistical packages; and [ 4 ] procedures for data integration and interoperability with external sources.…”

Disponibilidad de cirujanos cardiovasculares pediátricos en el Perú en el año 2019

“…Esta requiere de una ardua preparación con la finalidad de optimizar el abordaje del paciente [2,3] . Antiguamente, se requería alrededor de 10 años de capacitación para alcanzar dicha subespecialidad, que incluye el entrenamiento en cirugía general (por tres años), cirugía de tórax y cardiovascular (por cinco años) y CCP (por dos años) [3][4][5] . En la actualidad, en el Perú no es necesario realizar el entrenamiento previo en cirugía general, por lo que los años de entrenamiento se reducirían aproximadamente a siete años.…”