Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long‐term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low‐lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.

show abstract

“…The ensemble change in extreme WEF was considered significant if |CV 2100 | ≤ 1 [Alfieri et al, 2015;Vousdoukas et al, 2016a].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Mentaschi

Vousdoukas

Voukouvalas

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

Self Cite

172

153

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There is a great number of recent studies which highlight that SLR will expose the coastal zone to greater risk in the years to follow (Hinkel et al, 2014;Losada et al, 2013;Weisse et al, 2014); while several others project that more frequent extreme weather events will enhance the impact of SLR on the coast (Brown et al, 2012;Debernard and Røed, 2008;Gaslikova et al, 2013;Lowe et al, 2009;Vousdoukas et al, 2016). During extreme events, the energetic atmospheric conditions result in transfer of mass and energy in the water element, which through the interaction with the bathymetry are manifested as increased water levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping

Vousdoukas

Voukouvalas

Mentaschi

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

192

157

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Coastal flooding related to marine extreme events has severe socioeconomic impacts, and even though the latter are projected to increase under the changing climate, there is a clear deficit of information and predictive capacity related to coastal flood mapping. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining (i) the contribution of waves to the total water level; (ii) improved inundation modeling; and (iii) an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded, whenever new and more accurate data become available. Four inundation approaches of gradually increasing complexity and computational costs were evaluated in terms of their applicability to large-scale coastal flooding mapping: static inundation (SM); a semidynamic method, considering the water volume discharge over the dykes (VD); the flood intensity index approach (Iw); and the model LISFLOOD-FP (LFP). A validation test performed against observed flood extents during the Xynthia storm event showed that SM and VD can lead to an overestimation of flood extents by 232 and 209 %, while Iw and LFP showed satisfactory predictive skill. Application at panEuropean scale for the present-day 100-year event confirmed that static approaches can overestimate flood extents by 56 % compared to LFP; however, Iw can deliver results of reasonable accuracy in cases when reduced computational costs are a priority. Moreover, omitting the wave contribution in the extreme total water level (TWL) can result in a ∼ 60 % underestimation of the flooded area. The present findings have implications for impact assessment studies, since combination of the estimated inundation maps with population exposure maps revealed differences in the estimated number of people affected within the 20-70 % range.

show abstract

“…Kim et al, 2014;Oh and Moon, 2013). Therefore, the projection of potential maximum SSHs and the identification of areas vulnerable to storm surge on regional or national scales are important for policy making to prioritize where to take action and to find appropriate site-specific solutions against the SSHs in the future climate condition along the coastlines (Vousdoukas et al, 2016;Lapidez et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity

Yang

Kim

Mori

et al. 2017

Hydrological Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:In this study, we propose a new approach for model validation that can be applied to the projection of possible future storm surge heights (SSHs) on the regional scale. First, this study conducts a series of SSHs for the southeastern coast of the Korean Peninsula (KP) by six typhoons that produced SSHs over 1.0 m since 1979 and identifies the bias between simulated and observed SSHs. Next, formulas for the bias correction using a geographic parameter, in particular the coastline complexity factors, are drawn and validated. Finally, the effect of the proposed bias correction on projection of future SSHs is examined by performing simple tests to consider only central pressure drops to reflect the impact of climate change. It can be seen that the bias correction method considering the coastline complexity can improve the model's accuracy by 14% to 23% and prevent potential overestimation by up to 20% of the maximum SSHs considering climate change effect on the southeastern coast of the KP.

show abstract

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

Cited by 270 publications

References 82 publications

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping

Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About