Projections of Future Air Quality Are Uncertain. But Which Source of Uncertainty Is Most Important?

Doherty, Ruth M.; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Turnock, Steven T.

doi:10.1029/2022jd037948

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 50 publications

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“…En estudios más recientes, se han logrado avances en la cuantificación de las distintas fuentes de incertidumbre en los escenarios de emisiones y en las proyecciones futuras sobre la calidad del aire en los EE. UU., incluida la determinación por separado de la incertidumbre asociada a los mecanismos de los modelos y a la variabilidad climática de origen natural 259,286,287 .…”

Section: Principales Incertidumbres Y Brechas En La Investigaciónunclassified

Cap. 14. Calidad del aire. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

2023

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Section: Principales Incertidumbres Y Brechas En La Investigaciónunclassified

Cap. 14. Calidad del aire. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

2023

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The projected future degradation in air quality is caused by more abundant natural aerosols in a warmer world

Gomez

Allen

Turnock

et al. 2023

Commun Earth Environ

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Previous studies suggest that greenhouse gas-induced warming can lead to increased fine particulate matter concentrations and degraded air quality. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sign and magnitude of the response to warming and the underlying mechanisms. Here, we show that thirteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 all project an increase in global average concentrations of fine particulate matter in response to rising carbon dioxide concentrations, but the range of increase across models is wide. The two main contributors to this increase are increased abundance of dust and secondary organic aerosols via intensified West African monsoon and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, respectively. Much of the inter-model spread is related to different treatment of biogenic volatile organic compounds. Our results highlight the importance of natural aerosols in degrading air quality under current warming, while also emphasizing that improved understanding of biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to climate change is essential for numerically assessing future air quality.

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Opinion: The strength of long-term comprehensive observations to meet multiple grand challenges in different environments and in the atmosphere

Kulmala,

Lintunen,

Lappalainen

et al. 2023

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. To be able to meet global grand challenges (climate change; biodiversity loss; environmental pollution; scarcity of water, food and energy supplies; acidification; deforestation; chemicalization; pandemics), which all are closely interlinked with each other, we need comprehensive open data with proper metadata, along with open science. The large data sets from ground-based in situ observations, ground and satellite remote sensing, and multiscale modeling need to be utilized seamlessly. In this opinion paper, we demonstrate the power of the SMEAR (Station for Measuring Earth surface–Atmosphere Relations) concept via several examples, such as detection of new particle formation and the particles' subsequent growth, quantifying atmosphere–ecosystem feedback loops, and combining comprehensive observations with emergency science and services, as well as studying the effect of COVID-19 restrictions on different air quality and climate variables. The future needs and the potential of comprehensive observations of the environment are summarized.

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Projections of Future Air Quality Are Uncertain. But Which Source of Uncertainty Is Most Important?

Cited by 4 publications

References 50 publications

Cap. 14. Calidad del aire. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

Cap. 14. Calidad del aire. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

The projected future degradation in air quality is caused by more abundant natural aerosols in a warmer world

Opinion: The strength of long-term comprehensive observations to meet multiple grand challenges in different environments and in the atmosphere

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