Projections of Future Changes in Precipitation and the Vertical Structure of the Frontal Zone during the Baiu Season in the Vicinity of Japan Using a 5-km-mesh Regional Climate Model

Kanada, Sachie; Nakano, Masuo; Kato, Teruyuki

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-a03

Cited by 40 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Sato and Takahashi (2001) and Inoue and Matsumoto (2006) reported that the northward migration of the Baiu front slows down in the late Baiu season. Interestingly, these observed changes are consistent with future changes predicted by high-resolution models under a scenario of global warming (Kusunoki et al 2011;Kanada et al 2012). In addition, Kanada et al (2012) reported that the delay in the northward migration of the Baiu front may result in substantial increases in the amount of precipitation and in a southward shift of the mean location of the Baiu front from 33.5°N to 33.0°N during the late Baiu season.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…Previous studies have used the location of the largest north-south gradient of θ e in the lower atmosphere to define the BFZ (Tomita et al 2011;Kanada et al 2012). We therefore find the location of the BFZ using the vertically averaged (925−850 hPa) equivalent potential temperature áθ e ñ in central Japan (132°E−137°E).…”

Section: Identification Of the Bfzmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Isotopic Variations Associated with North-South Displacement of the Baiu Front

Kurita

Fujiyoshi

Wada

et al. 2013

SOLA

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This study explores how north-south displacements of the Baiu front influence isotopic variation in Baiu precipitation. Deuterated water vapor (HDO), which was measured continuously in central Japan during the rainy season in 2010, showed clear intraseasonal variations associated with north-south migration of the Baiu front. Because water vapor transport by lower tropospheric southwesterlies from the subtropical high is characterized by relatively high HDO/H 2 O isotopic ratios, the highest HDO/H 2 O isotopic peaks were observed when the Baiu front migrated to the north of the observation site. Although these data were collected over only a one-year period, the findings can be used to explain interannual isotopic variations in Baiu precipitation during the period 1961−1978 at the Tokyo station. The isotopic content of June precipitation showed a positive correlation with the ratio of warm rainfall formed by subtropical marine air to total rainfall in June. This suggests that the isotopic content of Baiu precipitation is higher than that of a normal year, for years when the Baiu front shows prolonged stationary patterns in regions towards the Sea of Japan. Thus, we conclude that water isotopic ratios are a powerful tool for reconstructing past shifts in the position of the Baiu front.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Identification Of the Bfzmentioning

confidence: 99%

Isotopic Variations Associated with North-South Displacement of the Baiu Front

Kurita

Fujiyoshi

Wada

et al. 2013

SOLA

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“…2a). At the center of this rainband, θ e in the lower atmosphere is around 335 K and θ e gradually decreases (increases) toward the north (south; Tomita et al, 2011;Kanada et al, 2012). In this study, we calculated the vertically averaged (925-850 hPa) equivalent potential temperature θ e around the observation site, and then the summer precipitation was divided into warm and cold events depending on the θ e of the air mass-induced precipitation.…”

Section: Precipitation Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

East Asian Monsoon controls on the inter-annual variability in precipitation isotope ratio in Japan

et al. 2015

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Abstract. To elucidate the mechanism for how the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) variability have influenced the isotope proxy records in Japan, we explore the primary driver of variations of precipitation isotopes at multiple temporal scales (event, seasonal and inter-annual scales). Using a new 1-year record of the isotopic composition of event-based precipitation and continuous near-surface water vapor at Nagoya in central Japan, we identify the key atmospheric processes controlling the storm-to-storm isotopic variations through an analysis of air mass sources and rainout history during the transport of moisture to the site, and then apply the identified processes to explain the inter-annual isotopic variability related to the EAM variability in the historical 17-year long Tokyo station record in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP).In the summer, southerly flows transport moisture with higher isotopic values from subtropical marine regions and bring warm rainfall enriched with heavy isotopes. The weak monsoon summer corresponds to enriched isotopic values in precipitation, reflecting higher contribution of warm rainfall to the total summer precipitation. In the strong monsoon summer, the sustaining Baiu rainband along the southern coast of Japan prevents moisture transport across Japan, so that the contribution of warm rainfall is reduced. In the winter, storm tracks are the dominant driver of storm-to-storm isotopic variation and relatively low isotopic values occur when a cold frontal rainband associated with extratropical cyclones passes off to the south of the Japan coast. The weak monsoon winter is characterized by lower isotopes in precipitation, due to the distribution of the cyclone tracks away from the southern coast of Japan. In contrast, the northward shift of the cyclone tracks and stronger development of cyclones during the strong monsoon winters decrease the contribution of cold frontal precipitation, resulting in higher isotopic values in winter precipitation. Therefore, year-to-year isotopic variability in summer and winter Japanese precipitation correlates significantly with changes in the East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity (R = −0.47 for summer, R = 0.42 for winter), and thus we conclude that the isotope proxy records in Japan should reflect past changes in the East Asian Monsoon. Since our study identifies the climate drivers controlling isotopic variations in summer and winter precipitation, we highlight the retrieval of a record with seasonal resolution from paleoarchives as an important priority.

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“…In the KAKUSHIN Program (Kitoh et al 2009), Kanada et al (2012) discovered an increase of extreme precipitation in early July in the future climate by analyzing a 5-km-mesh non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM05) under the A1B scenario proposed in IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES;IPCC 2000). Nested in an outer 20-km-mesh global atmospheric climate model (AGCM20), NHRCM05 outputs 30-minutes precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Change of Occurrence Frequency of Baiu Heavy Rainfall and Its Linked Atmospheric Patterns by Multiscale Analysis

Osakada

Nakakita

2018

SOLA

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The future change of heavy rainfall (meso-β scale) in the Baiu season, the atmospheric patterns (over meso-α scale) of sea level pressure and surface vapor flux, and the connection between them were investigated by analyzing multiple datasets of a highresolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM05) for better simulating heavy rainfall, a coarser-resolution global atmospheric climate model (AGCM20) embedding the NHRCM 05, and a huge database for Policy Decision-Making for Future climate change (d4PDF) with a coarser-resolution. As a result, northern Japan and Japan-sea-side areas have a statistically significant increase of heavy rainfall that is caused by an increase in the atmospheric patterns with westward-protruding Pacific high and northward-invading vapor flux along the periphery of the high. In the Pacific side in eastern Japan, the typical atmospheric pattern prone to heavy rainfall will change in the future as it will decrease the occurrence frequency of the atmospheric pattern that presently caused heavy rainfall with cyclones located at south of Japan. Besides, the atmospheric pattern with westward-protruding pacific high, that presently caused heavy rainfall mainly in western Japan, will expand the area of heavy rainfall eastward in the future due to an eastward-invading vapor flux.(Citation: Osakada, Y., and E. Nakakita, 2018: Future change of occurrence frequency of Baiu heavy rainfall and its linked atmospheric patterns by multiscale analysis. SOLA, 14, 79−85,

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Projections of Future Changes in Precipitation and the Vertical Structure of the Frontal Zone during the Baiu Season in the Vicinity of Japan Using a 5-km-mesh Regional Climate Model

Cited by 40 publications

References 38 publications

Isotopic Variations Associated with North-South Displacement of the Baiu Front

Isotopic Variations Associated with North-South Displacement of the Baiu Front

East Asian Monsoon controls on the inter-annual variability in precipitation isotope ratio in Japan

Future Change of Occurrence Frequency of Baiu Heavy Rainfall and Its Linked Atmospheric Patterns by Multiscale Analysis

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