Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide

Abstract

& Context Projecting changes in forest productivity in Europe is crucial for adapting forest management to changing environmental conditions. & Aims The objective of this paper is to project forest productivity changes under different climate change scenarios at a large number of sites in Europe with a stand-scale processbased model. & Methods We applied the process-based forest growth model 4C at 132 typical forest sites of important European tree species in ten environmental zones using climate change scenarios from three different climate models and two different assumptions about CO 2 effects on productivity. & Results This paper shows that future forest productivity will be affected by climate change and that these effects depend strongly on the climate scenario used and the persistence of CO 2 effects. We find that productivity increases in Northern Europe, increases or decreases in Central Europe, and decreases in Southern Europe. This geographical pattern is mirrored by the responses of the individual tree species. The productivity of Scots pine and Norway spruce, mostly located in central and northern Europe, increases while the productivity of Common beech and oak in southern regions decreases. It is important to note that we consider the physiological response to climate change excluding disturbances or management. & Conclusions Different climate change scenarios and assumptions about the persistence of CO 2 effects lead to uncertain projections of future forest productivity. These uncertainties need to be integrated into forest management planning and adaptation of forest management to climate change using adaptive management frameworks. Keywords 4C (FORESEE). CO 2 effects. Environmental change. Level-II plots. Process-based modelling. Uncertainties

Alternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe

“…The climate component considers two effects: (a) the effect of changes in growing conditions on the productivity of forests, based on Reyer et al (2014) and (b) the effect of changes in climate on the suitability of a location for a specific species, based on Hanewinkel et al (2013). The management component is defined by the rotation lengths, share of total removals originating from thinning and species choice, inspired by the different regional case studies.…”

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes

“…tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Growth, for instance, is generally expected to increase in higher latitudes and altitudes (due to extended growing seasons and the effect of CO 2 fertilization), while a reduction from increasing water limitations can be expected in warmer and drier regions of the globe (Reyer et al 2014). Increased mortality from drought and disturbances such as wildfires and insect outbreaks is furthermore expected under climate change ).…”

Species composition and forest structure explain the temperature sensitivity patterns of productivity in temperate forests

“…Such models are able to estimate forest productivity under different climate conditions (Lasch et al, 2005;Bohn et al, 2014, e.g.). For instance, Reyer et al (2014) investigated the effect of climatic change on forests by 25 simulating 30 years into the future for 135 inventoried forest stands. There are also model-based studies, which systematically nalyzed the effect of species diversity on productivity and stability over long periods (Morin et al, 2011(Morin et al, , 2014.…”

“…Hence, our data set of forest stands covers a much larger variety of forest property combinations compared to long term forest simulations 15 with the focus on natural forests in their equilibrium state (Morin et al, 2011, e.g. ) or on monocultures (Reyer et al, 2014, e.g.). However, it would be possible to reconstruct a forest succession based on the forest factory by selecting forest stands in an appropriate order.…”

“…However, it would be possible to reconstruct a forest succession based on the forest factory by selecting forest stands in an appropriate order. Long term simulations with ecosystem models, which process modelled climate projections, face a trade-off between cascade uncertainty and path dependency (Wilby and Dessai, 2010;Reyer et al, 2014). The accumulations of model uncertainties over such a process chain result in an increasing uncertainty.…”