Projections of salt intrusion in a mega-delta under climatic and anthropogenic stressors

Eslami, Sepehr; Hoekstra, P.; Minderhoud, Philip S. J.; Trung, Nam Nguyen; Hoch, Jannis; Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; Dung, Do Duc; Tho, Tran Quang; Voepel, Hal; Woillez, Marie-Noëlle; Vegt, M. van der

doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00208-5

Cited by 64 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…The drought and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong delta in winter-spring of 2015-2016 imposed signi cant agricultural and socioeconomic damage (CGIAR 2016; Nguyen 2017; Nguyen, Renaud, and Sebesvari 2019), and saltwater intrusion is projected to increase due to climate change and upstream dam developments (Eslami et al 2021). The key objective of this paper was to enhance our understanding of the distributional implications of drought and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta by disentangling and operationalizing the concepts of vulnerability and resilience.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability and resilience to drought and saltwater intrusion of rice farming households in the Mekong delta, Vietnam

Aalst

Koomen

Groot

2023

Preprint

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Adverse impacts of climate and environmental hazards are unevenly distributed between socioeconomic groups due to differences in exposure, vulnerability and resilience. This study examines the distribution of vulnerability and resilience to drought and salt intrusion impacts among rice farmers in the rural Mekong Deltain Vietnam. By defining both aspects independently, we can study potential differences in the socio-economic factors that steer them and analyse how these two aspects of adaptive capacity are related. Using fixed-effect regressions, we find that poorer communes are more vulnerable to direct environmental impacts (loss in rice yield). Several household characteristics that reflect a low socioeconomic status, such as low asset values, small plots, and limited education level, are also linked with higher vulnerability to direct drought impacts. High vulnerability does, however, not necessarily translate to low resilience, which we proxy by measuring indirectimpacts (loss in household income). Several household activities and characteristics help mitigate direct impacts. Our results suggest that the least resilient household group consists of smallholder, asset-low households that are unable to diversify to non-crop agriculture or off-farm employment. Supportive policies targeting this particular socioeconomic group to enable transition to non-crop or off-farm labour would substantially improve their resilience to future environmental events. Distinguishing between resilience and vulnerability enables a broader understanding of the mechanisms influencing the distribution of direct and indirect adverse impacts, which enables drafting targeted policy measures for specific socioeconomic groups.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability and resilience to drought and saltwater intrusion of rice farming households in the Mekong delta, Vietnam

Aalst

Koomen

Groot

2023

Preprint

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“…Mining of sand and other aggregates can lead to significant sediment starvation 123,124 particularly when rivers are both impacted by dams and mining activities. In downstream deltas this results in deepening of the channels, leading to tidal amplification and consequently increased flooding 125 , salinity intrusion 126 ) and coastal erosion 127 . Erosion from hillslopes and sediment supply to rivers can be modelled on basin scales with a variety of tools.…”

Section: Modeling Changing Sediment Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Data, knowledge, and modeling challenges for science-informed management of river deltas

Schmitt

Minderhoud

2023

One Earth

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“…In recent decades, saltwater intrusion has been the main issue under the influences of both anthropogenic activities and natural forces, e.g. reduced upstream discharge and rising sea levels (Yuan et al, 2015;Liu et al, 2019;Eslami et al, 2021). The duration with salinity exceeding the recommended salinity threshold is an important index to evaluate saltwater intrusion.…”

Section: Environmental Response To Alterations In Sediment Regimementioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term variations in water discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River Estuary: Implications for sustainable development of the Greater Bay Area

Liu

Fagherazzi²,

Liu³

et al. 2022

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The water discharge and sediment load have been increasingly altered by climate change and human activities in recent decades. For the Pearl River, however, long-term variations in the sediment regime, especially in the last decade, remain poorly known. Here we updated knowledge of the temporal trends in the sediment regime of the Pearl River at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales from the 1950s to 2020. Results show that the annual sediment load and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) exhibited drastically decreased, regardless of water discharge. Compared with previous studies, we also found that sediment load and SSC reached a conspicuous peak in the 1980s, and showed a significant decline starting in the 2000s and 1990s, respectively. In the last decade, however, water discharge and sediment load showed slightly increasing trends. At the seasonal scale, the wet-season water discharge displays a decreasing trend, while the dry-season water discharge is increasing. At the monthly scale, the flood seasons in the North and East Rivers typically occur one month earlier than that in the West River due to the different precipitation regimes. Precipitation was responsible for the long-term change of discharge, while human activities (e.g. dam construction and land use change) exerted different effects on the variations in sediment load among different periods. Changes in the sediment regime have exerted substantial influences on downstream channel morphology and saltwater intrusion in the Greater Bay Area. Our study proposes a watershed-based solution, and provides scientific guidelines for the sustainable development of the Greater Bay Area.

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Projections of salt intrusion in a mega-delta under climatic and anthropogenic stressors

Cited by 64 publications

References 78 publications

Vulnerability and resilience to drought and saltwater intrusion of rice farming households in the Mekong delta, Vietnam

Vulnerability and resilience to drought and saltwater intrusion of rice farming households in the Mekong delta, Vietnam

Data, knowledge, and modeling challenges for science-informed management of river deltas

Long-term variations in water discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River Estuary: Implications for sustainable development of the Greater Bay Area

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