Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history

Büntgen, Ulf; Arseneault, Dominique; Boucher, Étienne; Churakova, Olga V.; Gennaretti, Fabio; Crivellaro, Alan; Hughes, Malcolm K.; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Klippel, Lara; Krusic, Paul J.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Ludescher, Josef; McCormick, Michael; Myglan, Vladimir S.; Nicolussi, Kurt; Piermattei, Alma; Oppenheimer, Clive; Reinig, Frederick; Sigl, Michael; Vaganov, Еugene А.; Esper, Jan

doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757

Cited by 94 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Challenged with the same task to develop the most reliable NH summer temperature reconstruction for the Common Era from nine high-elevation/high-latitude TRW datasets 3 (Fig. 1 ), each of the 15 groups who contributed independently to this experiment (referred to here as R1–R15) have experience in developing tree ring-based climate reconstructions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In nine ensemble reconstructions, six years between 1994 and 2016 CE contain the warmest summers of the Common Era, whereas eight and three reconstructions find 536 and 545 CE as the coldest summers, respectively. Pre-industrial summer warmth is most evident in the late-3rd and early-4th centuries, whereas interannual to decadal cooling mostly follows volcanic eruptions 3 . The overall coldest summer in the R4 reconstruction is 627 CE (−3.61 °C), which was likely caused by a large volcanic eruption of yet unknown source in 626 CE 24 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study of TRW variation in samples from cold high-elevation/-latitude sites can reveal changes in growing season temperature 1 , while TRW chronologies from lower elevation, temperate and semiarid sites, where plant growth predominantly depends on soil moisture availability, more often represent hydroclimatic changes 4 . Yet, despite the broad geographic coverage and precise dating of extra-tropical tree-ring chronologies 5 , 6 , there are only nine temperature-sensitive TRW chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) that span the past two millennia 3 ; and far fewer in the Southern Hemisphere 2 . In addition to the paucity of multi-millennial TRW datasets from upper or northern treeline ecotones, subjectivity in site and series selection, correction for biological age trends in raw TRW measurements (hereafter referred to as detrending), and the climate calibration procedure, can have substantial consequences for the reconstruction of regional-scale to large-scale climate variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

et al. 2021

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Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

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“…As highlighted by Sigl et al (2013), the sulfate deposition in Greenland relating to the later event is greater than for the earlier event and is also consistent with the record from Antarctica. Further independent confirmation of the matching of the events could be achieved if the temporal evolution of sulfur isotope anomalies over the peak starting in 1458 CE were consistent between ice cores from both polar ice sheets, as was demonstrated recently for the Samalas 1257 CE eruption (Burke et al, 2019). While factors other than latitude may influence the stratospheric distribution of sulfate between the two hemispheres, aerosol modelling suggests that a likely range of latitudinal positions for eruption sources can be approximated based on the asymmetry of sulfate deposition between Greenland and Antarctica (Toohey et al, 2016(Toohey et al, , 2019Marshall et al, 2019).…”

Section: Confirming the Timing And Hemisphere Of Mid-15th Century Volmentioning

confidence: 61%

Cryptotephra from the Icelandic Veiðivötn 1477 CE eruption in a Greenland ice core: confirming the dating of volcanic events in the 1450s CE and assessing the eruption's climatic impact

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are a key source of climatic variability, and reconstructing their past impact can improve our understanding of the operation of the climate system and increase the accuracy of future climate projections. Two annually resolved and independently dated palaeoarchives – tree rings and polar ice cores – can be used in tandem to assess the timing, strength and climatic impact of volcanic eruptions over the past ∼ 2500 years. The quantification of post-volcanic climate responses, however, has at times been hampered by differences between simulated and observed temperature responses that raised questions regarding the robustness of the chronologies of both archives. While many chronological mismatches have been resolved, the precise timing and climatic impact of two major sulfate-emitting volcanic eruptions during the 1450s CE, including the largest atmospheric sulfate-loading event in the last 700 years, have not been constrained. Here we explore this issue through a combination of tephrochronological evidence and high-resolution ice-core chemistry measurements from a Greenland ice core, the TUNU2013 record. We identify tephra from the historically dated 1477 CE eruption of the Icelandic Veiðivötn–Bárðarbunga volcanic system in direct association with a notable sulfate peak in TUNU2013 attributed to this event, confirming that this peak can be used as a reliable and precise time marker. Using seasonal cycles in several chemical elements and 1477 CE as a fixed chronological point shows that ages of 1453 CE and 1458 CE can be attributed, with high precision, to the start of two other notable sulfate peaks. This confirms the accuracy of a recent Greenland ice-core chronology over the middle to late 15th century and corroborates the findings of recent volcanic reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctica. Overall, this implies that large-scale Northern Hemisphere climatic cooling affecting tree-ring growth in 1453 CE was caused by a Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruption in 1452 or early 1453 CE, and then a Southern Hemisphere eruption, previously assumed to have triggered the cooling, occurred later in 1457 or 1458 CE. The direct attribution of the 1477 CE sulfate peak to the eruption of Veiðivötn, one of the most explosive from Iceland in the last 1200 years, also provides the opportunity to assess the eruption's climatic impact. A tree-ring-based reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures shows a cooling in the aftermath of the eruption of −0.35 ∘C relative to a 1961–1990 CE reference period and −0.1 ∘C relative to the 30-year period around the event, as well as a relatively weak and spatially incoherent climatic response in comparison to the less explosive but longer-lasting Icelandic Eldgjá 939 CE and Laki 1783 CE eruptions. In addition, the Veiðivötn 1477 CE eruption occurred around the inception of the Little Ice Age and could be used as a chronostratigraphic marker to constrain the phasing and spatial variability of climate changes over this transition if it can be traced in more regional palaeoclimatic archives.

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“…In the recent study by Büntgen et al (2020) an updated tree-ring data set based on 9 tree ring locations for the NH and for the entire past 2000 years was published. This study shows a larger temperature variation than previously recognized for the first millennium, as well as 536 CE marking the beginning of the coldest decade of the last 2000 years.…”

Section: Tree-ring -Model Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Was there a volcanic induced long lasting cooling over the Northern Hemisphere in the mid 6th–7th century?

Dijk

Jungclaus

Lorenz

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) of the mid-6th century was one of the coldest during the last two millennia. The onset of this cold period is attributed to the volcanic double eruption event in 536 and 540 Common Era (CE) based on multiple paleo-proxies. Recently, there has been a debate about how long lasting and cold this volcanic induced cold period actually was. To better understand this, we analyze new transient simulations over the Common Era and enhance the representation of mid 6th to 7th century climate by additional ensemble simulations covering 520–680 CE. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model and apply external forcing as recommended in the Paleo Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 4. After the four large eruptions in 536, 540, 574, and 626 CE, a significant surface climate response up to 20 years is simulated. The Northern Hemisphere 2 m air temperature, and precipitation decreases up to 2 K, and 0.2 mm day−1, respectively, and sea ice area increases up to 1.5 x 1012 m2. The global ocean heat content decreases drastically by 1.5 x 1023 Jm−1, which is significant for 30–40 years, and does not totally recover during the entire study period. The surface maps reveal atmospheric circulation changes with a hemispheric dipole pattern and land see contrast in the first two years after the eruptions. Poleward of ∼ 45° N higher sea level pressure and a decrease in hydrological variables occur, accompanied by a land see contrast, with decreased values over land and an increase in values over the ocean, which is especially pronounced for evaporation during boreal summer. During boreal winter, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation develops in the first year after (three out of the four) large eruptions. Analysing underlying mechanisms in the North Atlantic reveals that complex interaction between sea-ice expansion, changes in barotropic streamfunction and meridional overturning circulation leads to a reduction in the ocean heat transport, which then further enhances sea ice expansion impacting NH surface climate up to 20 years. Temperature records reconstructed from tree-rings in the NH agree well with the model simulations and show a similar ∼20 year cooling after the eruptions. A century of surface cooling starting in the mid-6th century, as shown from local tree-ring records from the Alps and Altai, does not occur in our volcanic climate model simulations, nor in the NH tree-ring compilation.

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Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history

Cited by 94 publications

References 76 publications

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Cryptotephra from the Icelandic Veiðivötn 1477 CE eruption in a Greenland ice core: confirming the dating of volcanic events in the 1450s CE and assessing the eruption's climatic impact

Was there a volcanic induced long lasting cooling over the Northern Hemisphere in the mid 6th–7th century?

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