Promise, premise, and reality: the case of voluntary environmental non-migration despite climate risks in coastal Bangladesh

Abstract

Despite confronting severe climatic risks, many people prefer to remain in climate hazard-prone areas rather than migrate. Environmental non-migration behavior, however, has gained relatively little research attention in the field of migration processes. This study aims to unveil the determinants motivating voluntary environmental non-migration decisions in coastal Bangladesh, an area highly exposed to flooding and other climate-related hazards (e.g., soil salinization). Applying a systematic random sampling, we selected 556 household respondents for a questionnaire survey from 14 villages of two coastal districts: Khulna and Satkhira. Applying a mixed method (i.e., both quantitative and qualitative) approach, major empirical results of this study suggest that even though all respondents lived in a similar situation in terms of climatic hazard and exposure, 88% of the respondents reported themselves as voluntary non-migrants. Furthermore, these non-migrants enjoyed higher socioeconomic and sociopsychological advantages and availed more local support from different government and non-government organizations than involuntary non-migrants. Again, mutual assistance, connection with social groups, natural resource access, sense of secured livelihood, stable societal atmosphere, and participation in decision-making in society appeared to build their higher degree of social capital $$({\chi }^{2}\left(4\right)=57.80;p<0.000)$$ ( χ 2 4 = 57.80 ; p < 0.000 ) compared to involuntary non-migrants. All these features lead to a favorable environment that ultimately drove the respondents to become voluntary non-migrants.

“I can migrate, but why should I?”—voluntary non-migration despite creeping environmental risks

“…Research on migration as a consequence of climate change exacerbating environmental hazards has been a field of interest for years. However, the exploration of environmental non-migration and its recognition as not only an eventually but also an active, voluntary decision has only found its way into research quite recently (Mallick, 2019;Wiegel et al, 2021;Ahsan et al, 2022). Still, the pull factors of 'staying' are evasive and complex and, therefore, hard to capture in models and analyses (Adams and Kay, 2019).…”

A review of drivers of environmental non-migration decisions in Africa

“…For instance, in the Himalayan Region, Bhusal et al (2021) contend that questions on environmental nonmigration aspirations in this disaster-prone region account only for a negligible number of studies. This view is further shared by Ahsan et al (2022) who report on the dearth of literature on environmental non-migration, even in a highly disaster-prone setting such as Bangladesh. Thus, while Africa is not completely left out of the discourse on environmental non-migration, research acceptance and implementation are largely contemporary.…”

How do migration decisions and drivers differ against extreme environmental events?

“…The coastal zone accounts for 32% of the area and 28% of the population of Bangladesh, and is divided into three regions: southeast, central and southwest coast. The southwest zone, in particular, is witnessing substantial outmigration and unpredictable demographic futures ( Ahsan et al, 2022 ; Naser et al, 2019 ). Migration, especially from rural to urban, is common, and past work has shown that one-third of families in this region have sent a male migrant to a nearby city (temporarily or permanently) immediately after an extreme environmental event (Ahsan et al, 2002; Mallick & Vogt, 2012 ).…”