Propagation of Drought: From Meteorological Drought to Agricultural and Hydrological Drought

Wang, Wen; Ertsen, Maurits W.; Svoboda, Mark D.; Hafeez, Mohsin

doi:10.1155/2016/6547209

Cited by 135 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Lack of precipitation combined with higher evaporation rates propagates through the hydrological cycle from a meteorological drought into soil moisture depletion. This results into a stage where crops or terrestrial ecosystems are impacted and eventually into a hydrological drought (Wang et al, 2016). For instance, lag times between meteorological and hydrological drought are short in region I, which can cause a hydrological drought to occur in the same season as the meteorological drought that caused it.…”

Section: Changes In Drought Durations and Magnitudes During The Growimentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro‐CORDEX models

Potopová

Štěpánek

Zahradníček

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The main objective of this study was to project changes in the evolution of drought characteristics (frequency, duration and magnitude) during the 21st century in lowlands, highlands and mountainous regions in the Czech Republic (CR). We focused on the multi‐scalar nature of droughts as a function of the variables that govern the balance of moisture during climate change, such as precipitation, which supplies moisture, and temperature, which modulates evapotranspiration. Thereby, this issue is addressed with two drought indices, i.e. the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), for various lags (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months). To assess the impact of climate change on drought characteristics, a set of eight regional climate models (RCMs) simulations were selected for further analysis driven by five different global circulation models (GCMs) carried out in the frame of Euro‐CORDEX. Future drought changes were developed for the two representative concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the temporal evolution of the droughts, the monthly drought indices were calculated over the entire study period from 1961 to 2100. The SPEI showed a higher frequency in the categories of severe droughts and extreme droughts than the SPI, while the SPEI yielded fewer events in the extreme wet categories. The probability distribution of the SPEI‐6 under the RCP8.5 scenario shifted more than one and a half standard deviations in lowlands at the end of the century, peaking at −1.65 (with a probability of 10.5%). This meant that severe droughts, according to the current climate criteria, will become the new norm in the period 2071–2100.

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Section: Changes In Drought Durations and Magnitudes During The Growimentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro‐CORDEX models

Potopová

Štěpánek

Zahradníček

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Nonetheless, the PDSI is spatially incomparable, complicated to calculate and to understand, and temporally invariable (i.e., it has no multiscalar properties) [Guttman, 1998]. Another index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) [Vicente-Serrano et al, 2010], is a relatively new index which has been already used in a large number of climatological, hydrological, and ecological studies [Yu et al, 2014;Meque and Abiodun, 2015;Kim et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2016] because it combines the benefit of using the reference evapotranspiration, like the PDSI, with the simplicity, robustness, and the multiscalar properties of the SPI [Vicente-Serrano et al, 2010, 2011c, 2014b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of WRF capability to detect dry and wet periods in Spain using drought indices

et al. 2017

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The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to show the benefits provided by downscaled fields to detect and analyze wet and dry periods over a region with high precipitation variability such as Spain. We have analyzed the spatiotemporal behavior of two widely used drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), computed at 3 and 12 month time scales, which provide important information in an agricultural and water‐resource context. These two indices were computed from WRF outputs and compared with those calculated from observational (monthly precipitation and temperature databases of Spain, MOPREDAS and MOTEDAS) and from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re‐Analysis (ERA‐Interim) data sets. This evaluation was made by using a regional scale and a multistep regionalization method and by comparison of individual grid points. In general, results indicate that the drought indices obtained by using WRF outputs provide a noticeable improvement regarding those computed by using ERA‐Interim, higher at longer time scales. Although results show no significant differences between drought indices analyzed, the improvement offered by WRF is greater for SPI than for SPEI. In terms of averaged duration, magnitude, and severity of drought, the benefits provided by WRF are not so evident, presenting better agreement with the observational data at 12 month time scale, being clearer for the intensity. These findings evidence the benefit of using WRF climate fields to monitor, analyze, and detect drought events, being a valuable source of knowledge for a suitable decision making, especially for water‐resource management.

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“…There is a significant relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts (Heim, 2002), and several studies have concluded that understanding drought propagation mechanisms between different types of drought may provide more accurate forecasts of agricultural and hydrological droughts, with the use of meteorological drought as a precursor (Hao et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2016). In the case of drought propagation, some researchers (Van Loon and Van Lanen, 2012;Van Loon, 2015;Barker et al, 2016;Melo and Wendland, 2016;Wang et al, 2016;Huang et al, 2017) have investigated drought propagation using various drought indicators. However, a statistical approach to the drought propagation phenomenon has not been developed (Shin et al, 2018) and only a few studies have focused on estimating drought propagation lag time (Sattar and Kim, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic long‐term hydrological drought forecast using Bayesian networks and drought propagation

Shin

Kwon

Lee

et al. 2019

Meteorological Applications

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Effective drought mitigation plans that can handle severe drought conditions require reliable drought forecasts. A probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method was developed using Bayesian networks that incorporate dynamic model predictions and a drought propagation relationship. The resulting model, Bayesian networks based drought forecasting with drought propagation (BNDF_DP), was designed using current and forecast lead time drought conditions of a multi‐model ensemble. Hydrological drought conditions were represented by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The ranked probability score (RPS) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were employed to measure forecast proficiency. The BNDF_DP model showed good performance, with an RPS 4–50% higher than a climatological model. ROC analysis indicated that the BNDF_DP offered superior forecasting skills for long‐term drought, with a 2 and 3 month lead time, compared with a model that does not consider drought propagation. The overall results indicated that the BNDF_DP model was a promising tool for probabilistic drought forecasting that can provide water managers and decision‐makers with the flexibility to respond to undesirable drought risks, prepare drought mitigation action plans and regulate policies based on future uncertainties.

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Propagation of Drought: From Meteorological Drought to Agricultural and Hydrological Drought

Cited by 135 publications

References 43 publications

Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro‐CORDEX models

Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro‐CORDEX models

Evaluation of WRF capability to detect dry and wet periods in Spain using drought indices

Probabilistic long‐term hydrological drought forecast using Bayesian networks and drought propagation

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