23.
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Abstract
25It has been suggested that climate change will lead to increased environmental 26 fluctuations, which will undoubtedly have evolutionary consequences for all biota. For 27 instance, fluctuations can directly increase the risk of invasions of alien species into 28 new areas, as these species have repeatedly been proposed to benefit from disturbances.
29At the same time increased environmental fluctuations may also select for better 30 invaders. However, selection by fluctuations may also influence the resistance of 31 communities to invasions, which has rarely been tested. We tested eco-evolutionary 32 dynamics of invasion with bacterial clones, evolved either in constant or fluctuating 33 temperatures, and conducted experimental invasions in both conditions. We found clear
CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under aThe copyright holder for this preprint (which was . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/186254 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Sep. 8, 2017;
Introduction
47Current climate change scenarios predict that in addition to the increase in temperature,
48fluctuations in temperature and other environmental conditions are also increasing 49 (Stocker et al. 2013) and creating selection pressures for biota. Some species benefit 50 from these changes, and invasions and range expansions have been documented for 51 many taxa (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Hickling et al. 2006; Bebber et al. 2013). In
60One possible evolutionary explanation for the emergence of invasive species and 61 genotypes is that they have evolved in a disturbed and fluctuating environment. It has 62 been suggested that rapid fluctuations in particular, can select for traits that could 63 promote invasion success, such as high population growth rate, plasticity and 64 persistence (Levins, 1968; Turelli & Barton, 2004; Meyers et al. 2005; Lee & 65 Gelembiuk, 2008). Climate change has been suggested to lead to increased extreme 66 events (e.g. Stocker et al. 2013), but the pre-adaptive role of fluctuating environments
67on invasions has seldom been tested (Lee & Gelembiuk, 2008; Ketola et al. 2013). The 68 literature on invasions has been centered on the evolutionary background of the invader,
69but the community's properties, such as diversity and relatedness with the invader. can 70 also influence invasion success (Davis, 2009 (Grimont & Grimont, 1978; Flyg et al. 1980; Ketola et al. 2016 a). Hence, our 113 experiment provides also an important test on the determinants of spread of pathogenic 114 bacteria and diseases facing climate change induced fluctuations.
116We hypothesized that if fluctuation in temperature is generally a driver of the evolution
121. CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license not peer-reviewed) is the...