Property Systems and Economic Growth in Japan, 730–1874

Abstract

New estimates on the premodern economic growth of Japan, based on more concrete evidence, have been presented. We revise the estimates of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) from the mid-eighth century to the mid-19th century and its population in the 12th century and describe the institutional transformations that correspond to the output changes. The revision of output and population results in updated estimates of per capita GDP for the medieval period and extension of the growth estimates in the early modern period to the annual series for 1651–1841. This study employs the techniques of quantitative inference and descriptive interpretation of the estimated performance. The findings show that: (a) Both the GDP and population significantly declined towards the 12th century, stagnated and experienced recovery from the 13th century onwards, and then continued to grow through the 17th century; (b) GDP growth accelerated in the 18th and 19th centuries; and (c) per capita GDP growth began to rise in the 13th century after a sharp decline from the 10th to 12th centuries. It continued to rise through the 16th century but declined again in the mid-17th century and finally rose again from the late 17th century onwards.

The Labor-Intensive Path: Wages, Incomes, and the Work Year in Japan, 1610–1890

“…Population increased rapidly after 1600 due to a civil war lasting over one and a half centuries coming to an end (see the right axis of Figure 4). Due to the lack of population surveys for 1600, estimates for the population at this time vary between 12 to 22 million, but I use the 17 million figure following Bassino et al (2019) and Nakabayashi et al (2020). The next observations are from 1721, where the best estimates derived from the population census suggest a vast increase to 31 million (Kitō 1996;Farris 1995).…”

“…The second alternative narrative is by Bassino et al (2019) and recently updated by Nakabayashi et al (2020), which is based on GDP per capita estimates shown in Figure 12. They place the beginnings of divergence in the medieval period.…”

Agricultural development in industrialising Japan, 1880–1940

“…The state provides formal institutional foundations for each market to function; examples include the security of property rights, provision of legal basis for credit cooperatives, establishment of formal agricultural banks and implementation of provincial rice inspections. The state's role is supported by its capacity to levy taxes and provide public goods (Nakabayashi et al, 2020; Sakane, 2011, pp. 234–8; Sng & Moriguchi, 2014).…”

“…The diversification of crops progressed slowly. The share of rice decreased, while the share of other commodities such as sericulture, 3 For up-to-date long-term estimates of Japan's GDP (730-1874), see Bassino et al (2019) and Nakabayashi et al (2020). 4 GDP estimates for countries other than Japan are from the Maddison Project Database, version 2013 (Bolt & van Zanden, 2014).…”

“…The reforms included: the port opening (1854), the fall of the Tokugawa shogunate and the restoration of imperial rule (1868), establishment of the modern prefectures (1871), dismantling of the status system (1871), land tax reform , development of the judicial system (1871), proclaiming of The Meiji Constitution (1889) and the first Diet (1890). 2 Recent long-term GDP estimates indicate that Japan experienced substantial per-capita income growth before the Meiji Restoration, but also that Japan's per-capita GDP was only around a quarter of Britain's level in 1874 (Bassino et al, 2019;Nakabayashi et al, 2020).…”