Reliable predictors of motor improvement in individual patients after stroke are scarce. Acute determination of upper limb Fugl-Meyer assessment (FMA) appears to have predictive value.1,2 This approach predicts that patients will improve approximately 70% of the difference between the maximum upper extremity FMA score and the score first tested for a given individual (recoverytypical). However, a significant subset of patients improves much less than predicted (recovery-atypical). Alternative models using other techniques like diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) 3,4 also fail to predict recovery in some patients. Here, we show that a combination of FMA and DTI obtained in the first weeks after stroke accurately discriminate between recovery-typical and recovery-atypical patients. In addition, we identify an alternative set of model parameters required for predictions in the recovery-atypical subgroup.We examined 25 patients (mean age 61 years, 11 female) with first ischemic stroke. Patients had a mean NIH Stroke Scale score of 11 (table e-1 on the Neurology ® Web site at Neurology.org). FMA 5 and DTI (appendix e-1) were obtained 2 weeks and 3 months after stroke onset. The FMA was performed by a trained occupational therapist blinded to the DTI results. Corticospinal tract (CST) asymmetry was calculated from the mean fractional anisotropy (FA) of the CST 3 :As with previous observations, 3,4 patients with greater CST asymmetry at 2 weeks had proportionally more severe motor deficits, both 2 weeks and 3 months after stroke onset (Spearman r , 20.8, p , 0.0001, figure 1, A and B). However, CST asymmetry was not significantly related to FMA improvement from 2 weeks to 3 months ( figure 1C). These findings were also confirmed when FA ispilesional /FA contralesional ratios were used as predictors rather than CST asymmetry.As expected, a majority of patients followed the FMA-based model predictions ( figure 1D; filled symbols), while a subgroup of patients exhibited recovery-atypical profiles ( figure 1D; unfilled circles). In order to further characterize the 2 patient subgroups, we computed the model residuals as the difference between the predicted FMA improvement and the observed FMA improvement. The residuals clearly differentiate recovery-typical ( figure 1E; filled bars) from recoveryatypical patients (unfilled bars). All recovery-atypical Ethan R. Buch, PhD Sviatlana Rizk, PhD Pierre Nicolo, MS Leonardo G. Cohen, MD Armin Schnider, MD Adrian G. Guggisberg, MD Figure 1 Fugl-Meyer assessment (FMA) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) predictors of motor improvementCorticospinal tract (CST) asymmetry at 2 weeks correlated with the severity of motor deficits at (A) 2 weeks and (B) 3 months after stroke, but not with (C) the change between these 2 time points. (D) The model DFMA 5 0.7*(66-FMA intial ), represented by a continuous line, predicted future FMA improvement in most patients (filled symbols), but there was a significant recovery-atypical subset (n 5 9; unfilled circles). (E) Recovery-atypical patients were def...