Proposed methodology for risk analysis of interdependent critical infrastructures to extreme weather events

Abstract

Growing scientific evidence suggests that risks due to failure of critical infrastructures (CIs) will increase worldwide, as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (EWEs) induced by climate change increases. Such risks are difficult to estimate due to the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of CIs and because information sharing regarding the vulnerabilities of the different CIs is limited. This paper proposes a methodology for risk analysis of systems of interdependent CIs to EWEs. The methodology is developed and carried out for the Port of Rotterdam area in the Netherlands, which is used as a case study. The case study includes multiple CIs that belong to different sectors and can be affected at the same time by an initiating EWE. The proposed methodology supports the assessment of common cause failures that cascade across CIs and sectors. It is based on a simple, user-friendly approach that can be used by CIs owners and operators. The implementation of the methodology has shown that the severity of cascading effects is strongly influenced by the recovery time of the different CIs due to the initiating EWE and that cascading effects that result from a disruption in a single CI develop differently from cascading effects that result from common cause failures. For most CIs, vulnerabilities from EWEs on the CI level will be higher than the cascading risks of common cause failures on the system of CIs; moreover, cascading risks for a CI will increase after its recovery from the event.

Towards Resilient Vital Infrastructure Systems: Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Research Agenda

“…Understanding the interdependency between VIS can also help to develop recovery measures (Gardoni, 2018), the aspect which has not been well included in current designing and decision making procedures. Lack of sufficient data on cascading effects has resulted to assume that these effects grow linearly between different types of infrastructures, while in reality this evolution may not be similar for all the inter-connections (Tsavdaroglou et al, 2018). Notably, such cascading effects of failures are not only cross sectoral, but also can be within a particular sector.…”

“…Similarly, Majithia (2014), and Giovinazzi et al (2017) conducted studies within the power and telecommunication systems, respectively, in which improvement of the infrastructure's resilience was analysed through sharing knowledge and collaborations among different stakeholders. As another method of increasing infrastructure resilience, risk assessment has been commonly used in the studies conducted by Ruijters and Stoelinga (2016); Hall et al (2016); Do and Jung (2018); Mao et al (2018); Wang et al (2019); and Tsavdaroglou et al (2018). The selected studies also highlight that within the water sector, combining green and grey infrastructures (nature-based solutions) is the most frequently used approach to increase system's resilience (e.g., Hulscher et al, 2014;Augustijn et al, 2014;Demuzere et al, 2014;Borsje et al, 2017;Augustijn et al, 2018;Beery, 2018;Vuik et al, 2019).…”

“…Infrastructures are affected by disruptive shocks and long-term pressures while delivering services (Hallegatte et al, 2019). The likelihood that these systems fail either by natural or human-induced hazards is increasing worldwide as a result of global pressures such as urbanization (Wamsler, 2014), population growth, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-driven hazards (Tsavdaroglou et al, 2018). Since infrastructures are highly inter-connected and inter-dependent systems, any failure and disruption may quickly propagate through the network (Rinaldi et al, 2001;Bouchon, 2006;Field et al, 2012;Eidsvig and Tagg, 2015;Tsavdaroglou et al, 2018) and can have serious impacts on society and economy (EC, 2004;Tsavdaroglou et al, 2018).…”

Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Climate Change Multi-Risk Assessment in the Mining Industry

“…Other European research initiatives focused on climate change impacts on infrastructures are: the study of Tsavdaroglou et al [61], who proposed a probabilistic methodology for risk analysis of interdependent critical infrastructures to extreme weather events and the "Risk Management for Roads in a Changing Climate" (RIMAROCC) framework [62], which enables European national authorities to identify road network risks with the associated different action plans and assess the economic implications of each action taking into consideration implementation, maintenance, and environmental factors. Canadian authorities developed corresponding frameworks such as the Canadian public infrastructure risk assessment methodology named "Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Engineering Protocol for Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation to a Changing Climate" [63,64] or the model of Etkin et al [65], which focused on the permafrost thawing impacts on engineering design and infrastructures.…”

Search of the most important combinations of gas industry objects from the positions of system operability

“…The study [8] examined and analyzed the problem of the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructures to terrorist acts on them. The study [9] offers a risk analysis methodology for systems of interdependent critical infrastructures in various extreme weather events.…”