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PurposeBy combining the notion of prospect theory with advanced machine learning algorithms, this study aims to predict whether financial institutions (FIs) adopt a reactive stance when they perceive climate change as a risk, consequently leading to the adoption of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices to avoid this risk. Prospect theory assumes that decision-makers react quickly when decisions are framed as a risk or threat rather than as an opportunity.Design/methodology/approachWe used a sample of 168 FIs across 27 countries and seven regions over the period 2003–2020. To conduct our empirical investigation, we compared the prediction accuracy of various machine learning algorithms.FindingsOur findings suggest that out of 12 machine learning algorithms, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost have the most precision in predicting whether FIs react to climate change risk in adopting ESG practices. This study also tested the overall climate change risk and risks associated with physical, opportunity and regulatory shocks of climate change. We observed that risks associated with physical and regulatory shocks significantly impact the adoption of ESG practices, supporting prospect theory predictions.Practical implicationsThe insights of this study provide important implications for policymakers. Specifically, policymakers must take into account the risk posed by climate change in the corporate decision-making process, as it directly influences a firm’s adoption of corporate actions (ESG practices).Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the firm-level climate change risk and adoption of ESG practices from a prospect theory perspective using novel machine learning algorithms.
PurposeBy combining the notion of prospect theory with advanced machine learning algorithms, this study aims to predict whether financial institutions (FIs) adopt a reactive stance when they perceive climate change as a risk, consequently leading to the adoption of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices to avoid this risk. Prospect theory assumes that decision-makers react quickly when decisions are framed as a risk or threat rather than as an opportunity.Design/methodology/approachWe used a sample of 168 FIs across 27 countries and seven regions over the period 2003–2020. To conduct our empirical investigation, we compared the prediction accuracy of various machine learning algorithms.FindingsOur findings suggest that out of 12 machine learning algorithms, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost have the most precision in predicting whether FIs react to climate change risk in adopting ESG practices. This study also tested the overall climate change risk and risks associated with physical, opportunity and regulatory shocks of climate change. We observed that risks associated with physical and regulatory shocks significantly impact the adoption of ESG practices, supporting prospect theory predictions.Practical implicationsThe insights of this study provide important implications for policymakers. Specifically, policymakers must take into account the risk posed by climate change in the corporate decision-making process, as it directly influences a firm’s adoption of corporate actions (ESG practices).Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the firm-level climate change risk and adoption of ESG practices from a prospect theory perspective using novel machine learning algorithms.
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the effect of regulatory pressure on discretionary capital management measured with the discretionary loan loss provisions (DLLP) in public (PuBs) and Private (PrBs) banks in Tunisia. Three variables are used to proxy the regulatory capital constraints: (1) the change in capital requirements, (2) the beginning of the year capital ratio (3) and the end of year adjusted capital ratio.Design/methodology/approachTo address our objective, we provide in a first step the DLLP estimation as done by Shantaram and Steven (2021). Then, in a second step based on hand-collected panel data on the 12 commercial Tunisian banks, linear dynamic model with interaction variables is conducted to discriminate between PuBs and PrBs behavior. The generelized method of moment (GMM) estimation is applied to show if the PuBs and PrBs behave differently to regulatory capital pressures. For robustness check, the discriminant analysis and the nonlinear probit and logit models are considered in a third step.FindingsThe three capital constraints affect differently the discretionary behavior of Banks. First, an increase in capital requirements makes PrBs under pressure to reduce their DLLP, which is not the case for PuBs. Second, a low capital ratio at the beginning of the year makes strong pressure on PuBs to reduce their DLLP. Third, neither PrBs nor PuBs decrease their DLLP to improve the end of year-adjusted capital ratio. The discretionary behavior of PrBs is influenced by pressures to appear well-capitalized while the behavior of PuBs is influenced by pressure to enhance their capital positions. These results are well strengthened by the discriminant analysis and the nonlinear probit and logit model investigations.?Originality/valueA few studies examined incentives based on the regulatory theory in Tunisian banks and were carried out within static linear models. Contrary to Elleuch and Taktak (2015) who tested the regulatory incentives following the publication of the (IMF, 2002), this paper tests, within linear dynamic model and nonlinear model, the effect of national prudential rules on capital management between 2006 and 2016.
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