Prospective Estimation of the Scales and Subsidies of China's Offshore Wind Power Before 2020

Abstract

Abstract. In order to estimate the scales and subsidies of China's offshore wind power before 2020, the annual generation of China's total planned offshore wind power projects was analyzed and calculated based on existing engineering data as well as offshore wind resource data, performance parameters of wind turbines and reduction factors; generation costs based on internal rates of return of 6%, 8% and 10% of China's planned offshore wind projects were calculated by constructing capital expenditure models and using financial evaluation methods. Through the calculation of planned projects' annual power generation and generation costs, the supply curve of China's offshore wind power is constructed to calculate the development potentials and subsidies under current policy.On the basis of further study on possible policy changes, project investment decision-making, grid integration, the feasibility of subsidies payments and other relevant factors, development scales and subsidies of China's offshore wind power before 2020 were analyzed.It was estimated that the installed capacity of China's offshore wind power before 2020 is between 12.56 GW and 24.67 GW, the annual power generation is between 30.29 TWh and 56.03 TWh, subsidies are between 12.44 and 22.80 billion CNY, additional tariffs are between 1.88×10 -3 and 3.45×10 -3 CNY/kWh.