Prospective Financial Assessment Based on Real Options in Small and Medium-Sized Company

Abstract

The article presents a prototype of an intelligent Early Warning System based on real option approach to prospective financial assessment of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SME). The described approach constitutes a continuation of development of the intelligent cockpit for managers (InKoM project), the main objective of which was to facilitate financial analysis and evaluation of economic status of a company. The current project is related to the design of smart evaluation of critical financial situations of SME using real options, domain ontology, and AI methods. The content of the knowledge is focused on essential financial concepts and relationships connected with risk assessment, taking into consideration internal and external economic and financial information. A case study based on the real option has been carried out on financial data extracted from financial information system.