Prospective Outcome Assessment for Alternative Recruit Selection Policies

Abstract

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Library of Congress Control Number: 2018947699ISBN: 978-0-8330-9988-4 For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2267Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND CorporationR® is a registered trademark.iii PrefaceThis report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled "Optimizing Recruits Screening, Qualification Standards, and Preparation for Training," sponsored by the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Manpower and Reserve Affairs, and the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-1, U.S. Army. The purpose of the project was to provide the Army with a means of identifying the prospective effects of combinations of new recruits' cognitive, noncognitive, physical, demographic, and behavioral attributes on serving successfully and completing their first term, and on related costs, thus enabling the Army to identify potential changes to selection of youth based on these attributes in order to expand supply smartly or to decrease the rates of targeted adverse outcomes.The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is RAN167280.This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center's Personnel, Training, and Health Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army.RAND operates under a "Federal-Wide Assurance" (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as "the Common Rule," as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in Department of Defense Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND's Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this report SummarySuccessful completion of the first term of enlistment (or the contract term for recruits with prior service) i...

U.S. Department of Defense Disability Compensation Under a Fitness-for-Duty Evaluation Approach

“…We focus on 11B enlisted soldiers in the Army and use a DRM model estimated in Asch et al (2021) to simulate the cost of increasing 11B force size by increasing bonuses or accessions to restore the 0.2 percent reduction expected in Army enlisted strength shown in Table 5.1. Drawing from estimates in Orvis et al (2018), we assume that the average cost of recruiting and training a nonprior service Army recruit is $80,000 in 2019. 8 The DRM computes retention bonus costs as well as changes in compensation costs due to a change in the experience mix of the force (see Tong et al, 2021).…”

An Empirical Assessment of the U.S. Army's Enlistment Waiver Policies: An Examination in Light of Emerging Societal Trends in Behavioral Health and the Legalization of Marijuana

“…Furthermore, it is unclear which, if any, other recruit characteristics are effective at mitigating the riskiness associated with different waiver types. For example, Orvis et al, 2018, finds that Army accessions with and without weight waivers have similar outcomes in terms of first-term attrition, personnel actions (such as a bar to reenlistment), and separation for such reasons as physical condition and poor conduct. On the other hand, Army accessions with a drug and alcohol waiver (i.e., those who test positive for the presence of drugs or alcohol) are more likely to separate because of drug abuse or a serious offense, are more likely to have an adverse personnel action, and are more likely to fail to complete the first enlistment term than are similar accessions without a drug and alcohol waiver.…”

Military and Civilian Pay Levels, Trends, and Recruit Quality

“…Conduct waivers might be for traffic or, primarily, nontraffic misdemeanors, although, in the past, a limited number of felony waivers were also granted. Medical waivers can be for height, weight, or, the lion's share, for a medical condition requiring a waiver to enlist (Orvis, Maerzluft, et al, 2018). The normal rate of medical waivers in the Army is on the order of 8 to 10 percent of accessions.…”