Prospects for domestic biofuels for transport in Sweden 2030 based on current production and future plans

Abstract

Currently, Sweden has the largest share of renewable fuels for transport in the EU. The ambition of the Swedish Government for 2030 is for a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels. This paper assesses the potential future contribution of domestically produced biofuels for transport in Sweden to 2030, based on a mapping of the prospects from the actual and potential Swedish biofuel producers. There are plans for cellulose-based ethanol, methanol, DME (dimethyl ether), methane, and the biodiesel option HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil). Continued domestic production of biofuels at current levels and the realization of all the ongoing mapped plans for additional biofuels production result in potential domestic biofuels production of 18 TWh fuel in 2023. When assuming a continued expansion of biofuels production capacity, the potential domestic biofuels production reaches about 26 TWh fuel in 2030. If the realization of the mapped biofuels plans is delayed by 5 years and the pace of continued implementation of additional biofuel capacity is also reduced, the potential domestic biofuels production is reduced to about 8 TWh fuel and 20 TWh fuel biofuels in 2020 and 2030, respectively. These two scenarios correspond to a share of biofuels of the total future energy demand for road transport in Sweden at about 10-30% in 2020 and 26-79% in 2030, depending on which official energy demand scenario is used. The actual contribution of biofuels for road transport will depend on, e.g., policies, the global development for fossil fuels and biofuels, the competition for biomass and biofuels, and future energy demand in the road transport sector.

The Potential for Electrofuels Production in Sweden Utilizing Fossil and Biogenic CO2 Point Sources

“…For biofuels plants, the CO2 estimates are based on data gathered by Swedish Energy Agency and Energigas Sverige (2015) and Grahn and Hansson (2015. Also, the sources emitting less than 0.1 million metric tons of CO2 per year are included in the case of biofuels since these are relatively pure and, therefore, well suited for electrofuels production.…”

“…When biogas is upgraded to transport fuel quality, a cleaning step to remove CO2 is included, resulting in a relatively pure stream of CO2. The CO2 emissions from domestic biofuel production in a 2030 scenario are estimated based on biofuels production scenarios from Grahn and Hansson (2015) and on scenarios for anaerobic digestion and gasification-based biogas production from Dahlgren et al (2013). Grahn and Hansson (2015) assessed the potential contribution of domestically produced biofuels for transport in Sweden in 2030 based on a mapping of the prospects for current and potential Swedish biofuel producers.…”

“…The CO2 emissions from domestic biofuel production in a 2030 scenario are estimated based on biofuels production scenarios from Grahn and Hansson (2015) and on scenarios for anaerobic digestion and gasification-based biogas production from Dahlgren et al (2013). Grahn and Hansson (2015) assessed the potential contribution of domestically produced biofuels for transport in Sweden in 2030 based on a mapping of the prospects for current and potential Swedish biofuel producers. Some of the planned biofuels production plants included in the scenario for 2030 have been canceled or put on hold and are, therefore, excluded in this study.…”

Lifecycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions analysis of biomass‐based 2‐ethylhexanol as an alternative transportation fuel

“…47 In 2016, approximately 18% (17 TWh) of the road transport energy demand in Sweden was covered by bio-based fuels, mostly in form of biodiesel, ethanol and biogas, 48 produced to a large extent from agricultural crops. Sweden depends highly on bioenergy and has one of the highest shares of renewable F I G U R E 8 Alternative scenarios for fuel and distance during feedstock collection and transport process.…”

“…fuels for transport in the EU. 47 In 2016, approximately 18% (17 TWh) of the road transport energy demand in Sweden was covered by bio-based fuels, mostly in form of biodiesel, ethanol and biogas, 48 produced to a large extent from agricultural crops. 49 To meet the national emission reduction targets for the transport sector, the Swedish government expects that by 2030, 50% of petrol and diesel vehicles will run on bio-based fuels.…”