Prospects for Export of Goods from Turkey to the European Union Countries in the Context of Carbon Taxation

Abstract

The subject of the study is the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), one of the European climate regulation tools aimed at curbing the “carbon leakage” that occurs when importing goods from countries with less stringent climate regulation to countries with more stringent regulation. For this reason, the carbon tax affects the interests of exporters of carbon-intensive goods to the EU, especially Russia, Turkey, China, which will suffer the greatest damage. The purpose of the paper is to assess the dynamics of the export of Turkish goods to the EU countries and to determine Turkey’s position on the introduction of a carbon tax. One of the main tasks of the work is to determine the extent to which Turkey supports Russia in the EU’s opposition to the introduction of this tax. The research methodology is based on the use of statistical analysis methods (sampling, comparison, grouping, etc.) and analysis of identified trends. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of trade between the EU and Turkey led to the following results: 1) Turkey is one of the leading countries exporting carbon-intensive products to the EU; 2) The existence of a weak dependence of the EU on carbon-intensive Turkish goods due to the differentiation of its imports and, conversely, a strong dependence of the Turkish economy on the EU due to the significant orientation of Turkish exports to EU markets. It is concluded that Turkey is in a difficult situation in connection with the CBAM. On the one hand, there is a threat of a decrease in the competitiveness of products of the cement, mechanical, and metallurgical industries; on the other hand, national companies are successfully integrated into European production chains, and the strategy of adaptation to the European Green Deal may be preferable both for them and the national economy as a whole. Therefore, there is a possibility that Turkey will take a “pro-European” position. If a “pro-European” position prevails, this will create additional risks for the Russian Federation in the fight against EU carbon taxation.