Prospects for Human Longevity

Olshansky, S. Jay; Carnes, Bruce A.; Désesquelles, Aline

doi:10.1126/science.291.5508.1491

Cited by 221 publications

(140 citation statements)

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“…Saving an elderly life, however, has a smaller impact on life expectancy than saving the life of a newborn, which is why life expectancy is becoming less sensitive to changes in death rates (Olshansky, Carnes & Cassel 1990). Thus, the increases in life expectancy may only continue at the present pace if death rates at older ages can be reduced much faster than in the past (Olshansky, Carnes & Désesquelles 2001).…”

Section: Pessimistic Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first is that future increases in life expectancy are more difficult to achieve than in the past. As already mentioned in Section 1, the rapid increase in life expectancy during the first half of the 20 th century was mainly these ages are very low and any further mortality decline will only yield small increases in life expectancy in the future (Olshansky, Carnes & Désesquelles 2001). In 1990, Olshansky and colleagues calculated that eliminating all mortality before age 50 would lead to an increase in life expectancy of only 3.5 years (Olshansky, Carnes & Cassel 1990).…”

Section: Pessimistic Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the basis of these considerations, Olshansky and colleagues conclude that life expectancy for both sexes combined will in accordance unlikely exceed age 85 (see also Section 3.1) (CouzinFrankel 2011). They argue that unless the aging process itself can be modified, life (Olshansky, Carnes & Désesquelles 2001, p. 1492.…”

Section: Pessimistic Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries

Caselli¹,

Drefhal²,

Wegner-Siegmundt³

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Mortality in Low-Mortality Countries AbstractThis paper provides an overview of past and expected future trends in life expectancy in experienced strong decreases in infant mortality, the future mortality trends will be driven mainly by mortality among the old and oldest-old. The paper gathers empirical background data and theoretical considerations about past and likely future determinants of mortality including smoking, obesity, biomedical progress, environmental changes and socioeconomic conditions. Based on this knowledge an internet expert survey and a metaexperts meeting were carried out to formulate expert-based assumptions for future trends in s indicate that that the positive influences on human mortality and life expectancy will likely outweigh the negative risk factors and lead to further increases of life expectancy. Moreover, the paper concludes that the differences between countries are likely to narrow further in the future.

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Section: Pessimistic Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Pessimistic Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries

Caselli¹,

Drefhal²,

Wegner-Siegmundt³

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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“…Only a 6-year increase in life expectation occurred in the following 27 years (7,8). For an increase of even 10 more years in human life expectation to occur in the United States in the next 50 years, mortality rates will have to decline to a level that has never before been achieved (9).…”

Section: What Can Be Perturbed?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Aging: The Reality: "Anti-Aging" Is an Oxymoron

Hayflick¹

2004

The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and M

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“…This approach has inevitably come in for criticism because it ignores factors relating to lifestyle and the environment that might influence future mortality trends. On the other hand, another group of demographers (e.g., Olshansky et al [5][6][7], Mizuno et al [8], and Loladze [9]) have suggested that future life expectancy might level off or even decline due to factors such as obesity and decreased food-derived health benefits associated with higher levels of atmospheric CO 2 . But even demographers (e.g., de Grey [10]) critical of the extrapolative forecasting approach adopted by Vaupel still accept the possibility that scientific advances and the socio-political responses to them might lead to substantial increases in life expectancy over the next century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Myth of Methuselah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts

Dowd

Blake²,

Cairns

2016

Risks

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This paper uses mortality fan charts to illustrate prospective future male mortality. These fan charts show both the most likely path of male mortality and the bands of uncertainty surrounding that path. The fan charts are based on a model of male mortality that is known to provide a good fit to UK mortality data. The fan charts suggest that there are clear limits to longevity-that future mortality rates are very uncertain and tend to become more uncertain the further ahead the forecast-and that forecasts of future mortality uncertainty must also take account of uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying mortality model.

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Prospects for Human Longevity

Cited by 221 publications

References 10 publications

Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries

Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries

Aging: The Reality: "Anti-Aging" Is an Oxymoron

The Myth of Methuselah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts

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