Prospects for Mobile Communication Systems and Key Technologies Capable of Supporting Expanding Mobile Multimedia Services

Minomo, M.; Masamura, T.

doi:10.1142/s0218126604001404

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“…Wireless mobile communication is one of the rapidly growing industries (Du Preez and Pistorius, 2003). Since the first mobile phone, Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS), commercialized in Japan in 1979 (Smith and Collins, 2007), the number of subscribers worldwide exceeded 1 billion in 2002 (Minomo and Masamura, 2004). ITU(2010) forecasted it will grow to approximately 5 billion in 2010.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A look into the future of wireless mobile communication technologies

Kim

Daim

Anderson

2010

Technology Analysis & Strategic Management

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The number of wireless mobile communication service subscribers has reached 4.6 billion worldwide in 2009, and mobile revenues are expected to be over $1 trillion around 2012 according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) (ITU, 2010). A significant number of studies have been done to forecast the growing market and evaluate the new generation technology, the Beyond 3 Generation (B3G). However, there is no study forecasting when any of these new technologies will be commercialized. This paper presents a technical framework for forecasting the commercialization timeline of B3G technologies and provides insight on technology trajectories from 1G to 4G. The results show that a combination of technical parameters can explain heterogeneous wireless mobile communication technologies.Three parameters selected include channel bandwidth, channel bit rate, and data capacity for technical framework.the exponential trend, but if 4G technologies do not follow this trend, the overall forecasting model will need to be modified with new data.The study focused only on technical factors to forecast the future of wireless mobile communication technologies without detailed consideration of the markets, so the year of first commercialization was used to reflect market adoption indirectly into the model. However, market penetration and carrier's strategy for both current and future wireless mobile communication technologies need to be incorporated into the analysis in order to provide more comprehensive and accurate forecasting. Even though there are some limitations, this study provides a useful forecasting framework and an outlook for future wireless mobile communication technologies through a quantitative analysis. Notes on contributorsTugrul U Daim is an Associate Professor of Engineering and Technology Management at Portland State University. Dr Daim had been with Intel Corporation for over a decade before he joined PSU as a full time faculty. Dr Daim's research involves exploration of technology assessment in industries including automotive, energy, semiconductor manufacturing, communications and health care. He consults with government agencies and companies all around the world. He is also a visiting Professor at Technical University of Hamburg Harburg. Dr. Daim has over 100 papers published in journals and conference proceedings. He is the editor in chief for International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%