Prospects of Carbon Neutrality in Russian Agriculture According to SSP Scenarios: Analysis at the National Level and in а Region

Abstract

Sustainable development and reduction of the carbon footprint is an important issue on the development agenda of the Russian national economy and, in particular, the agricultural sector. The study of long-term trajectories of development of the agricultural economy and the conditions for achieving carbon neutrality should take into account the expected climatic and socio-economic changes in the world, which are enshrined in a number of widely used scenarios – ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ (SSPs) and, as a rule, are based on the use of integral multi-sector models land use dynamics. The study is focused on obtaining projections of climate change and scenarios SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 on the dynamics of crop production in Russia until 2050, with an emphasis on the development of a large agricultural region of Siberia – Altai Krai, in the context of analyzing the timing and conditions for achieving carbon neutrality. The GLOBIOM model, adapted for modeling at the level of Russian regions, was used as a toolkit. The results of scenario modeling made it possible to assess changes in the scale of production and cropland structure, greenhouse gas emissions in carbon units and the overall dynamics of the carbon footprint as well as expected consequences for Russian economy and harnessing the export potential of crops. It has been revealed that achieving carbon neutrality on the regional level (Altai Krai) is a challenge that requires a significant change in the structure of sown areas, the introduction of environmentally-oriented technologies and a significant increase in the productivity of agricultural land. The results contribute to deepening the understanding of regional economic management processes using the example of the Altai Kray and ways to achieve sustainable development goals, in particular achieving carbon neutrality in crop production. The practice of such research can be transferred to other regions of Russia