ABSTRACT:The prevalence of treated patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has been increasing steadily in Japan. High ESRD prevalence could be explained by multiple factors such as better survival on dialysis therapy, luxury acceptance due to insurance system to cover dialysis therapy, and 'truly' high incidence and prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The growing elderly population may also contribute to this trend. The Japanese Society of Nephrology estimated the prevalence of CKD stage 3 as 10.4%, 7.6% within the range of 50-59 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 in a screened population. Strong predictors of treated ESRD shown by using community-based screening programs and an ESRD registry in Okinawa are dip-stick-positive proteinuria and hypertension. Low glomerular filtration rate per se, which is often observed in the elderly population, is not a significant predictor of developing ESRD unless associated with proteinuria. CKD is common in Japan and is expected to increase, particularly in the elderly population. Benefits of proteinuria screening and automatic reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate on the incidence of ESRD remain to be determined.According to the annual report of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy (JSDT), the prevalence of treated end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients has been increasing for the past 20 years (Fig. 1).1 In the population aged 75 years and over, the prevalence is more than 0.5%. The incidence of ESRD is also increasing, particularly in those aged 75 years and over (Fig. 2). The main causes of ESRD incidence are diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic glomerulonephritis and nephrosclerosis. The incidence of DM is now more than 300 per million populations in those aged 65 years and over (Fig. 3). The mean age at start of dialysis therapy is over 65 years. There is a north (low) to south (high) gradient in the incidence and prevalence of ESRD without obvious explanation.The CKD prevalence seemed to be increasing in Japan. According to a community-based study in Hisayama, the age-adjusted prevalence of CKD stage 3 and 4 was 4.1% in 1974, 4.8% in 1988 and 8.7% in 2002 in men, and 7.3% in 1974, 11.2% in 1988 and 10.7% in 2002 in women. 2 This secular trend may be related to both genetic and environmental factors. Low birthweight, which is associated with lower nephron number, might develop DM and hypertension and therefore increase risk of ESRD.3 However, such data is not available in Japan. Lifestyle-related factors that are often associated with obesity and metabolic syndrome may have a role in the development and progression of CKD. (Table 1) Japan has a long history of universal screening systems including urine test for proteinuria and haematuria.
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PREDICTORS OF ESRD AMONG SCREENED SUBJECTS6,7 It is not mandatory, however, so the fraction of people participating has been low at approximately 20-30%. We have been investigating the predictors of ESRD using two independent registries (Okinawa Dialysis Study (OKIDS) for dialysis patients and Okinawa General Healt...