Prototypes of risk-based flood forecasting systems in the Netherlands and Italy

Abstract

Abstract. Flood forecasting, warning and emergency response are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within emergency response. However, the information provided for decision support is often restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in current early warning and response systems. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. This paper presents the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the first results from two prototype applications of the new developed concept: The first prototype is applied to the Rotterdam area situated in the western part of the Netherlands. The second pilot study focusses on a rural area between the cities of Mantua and Ferrara along the Po river (Italy).

Impact‐Based Forecasting for Pluvial Floods

“…This information is particularly helpful to prioritize efforts in reducing and containing damage given that residents in urban areas commonly overestimate the probability of flooding, but frequently underestimate the potential damage (Botzen et al., 2015). Forecasted impact maps, including, for example information about monetary damage to buildings or damage hotspots, could substantially improve emergency response in respect to location, time and type of emergency measures (Bachmann et al., 2016; Bhola et al., 2018; Coles et al., 2017). Flood event managers, who need to assess, in real time, the severity of possible field consequences associated with floods, to be able to take appropriate decisions, would be better informed (Dale et al., 2014).…”

“…Flood event managers, who need to assess, in real time, the severity of possible field consequences associated with floods, to be able to take appropriate decisions, would be better informed (Dale et al., 2014). Prototype systems have already been implemented in several test areas, for example in France, the Netherlands or Italy (Bachmann et al., 2016; Le Bihan et al., 2017). Although uncertainty of predictions is addressed in the damage model, it is not part in any of the other model parts.…”

Urban Hydroinformatics: Past, Present and Future

“…It would allow, for example, their real time control, with data from multiple sensors being continuously integrated within living models of the physical environment and the infrastructure. Furthermore, it would enable moving significant parts of these calculations to the edge [103], enabling precise and pro-active actuation of pumps, valves, sluice gates, for applications, such as flood forecasting and control [109,110], managing combined sewer overflows [111] and urban water management in general [112].…”

Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting - a UK pilot application

“…Probabilistic failure analysis calculates the structural reliability of the defence, which can then be combined with breach analysis to simulate the failure of the defence. These are described in detail, with case study applications in [20]. The spreading of the flood water across the flood plain can then be calculated,…”