Background & Aims
Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening decisions for elderly individuals are often
made based primarily on age—other factors that affect the effectiveness and cost
effectiveness of screening are often not considered. We investigated the relative
importance of factors that could be used to identify those elderly individuals most
likely to benefit from CRC screening and determined the maximum ages at which screening
remains cost effective based on these factors.
Methods
We used a microsimulation model (Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon) that
was calibrated to the incidence of CRC in the US and the prevalence of adenomas reported
in autopsy studies to determine the appropriate age to stop colonoscopy screening in
19,200 cohorts of individuals defined by sex, race, screening history, background risk
for CRC, and comorbidity status. We applied a willingness-to-pay threshold of
$100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.
Results
When considering the factors included in the model, a less intensive screening
history, a higher background risk for CRC, and fewer comorbidities were associated with
cost-effective screening at older ages. Sex and race had only a small effect on the
appropriate age to stop screening. For some individuals likely to be screened in current
practice, screening resulted in a loss of QALYs, rather than a gain. For some
individuals unlikely to be screened in current practice, screening was highly cost
effective. Although screening some previously screened, low-risk individuals was not
cost effective even when they were 66 y old, screening some healthy, high-risk
individuals remained cost effective until they reached an age of 88 y.
Conclusion
The current approach to CRC screening in elderly individuals, in which
decisions are often based primarily on age, is inefficient, resulting in underuse of
screening for some and overuse of screening for others. CRC screening could be more
effective and cost effective if individual factors for each patient are considered.