Provincial decomposition of China’s carbon emission reduction targets based on multi-scenario hypothesis

Abstract

In order to ensure that China can achieve the goal of carbon peak by provincial decomposition of China' s carbon emission reduction targets is essential. This study followed the three principles of fairness, efficiency, and feasibility and selected five decomposition criteria, namely, per capita CO2 emissions, per capita disposable income, proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP, energy consumption per unit GDP, and per capita GDP level, to build a provincial decomposition model of the target for incremental control of China's carbon emission, and simulated different GDP growth scenarios (2020 to 2025 scenario and three scenarios of high, low and baseline GDP growth rate from 2025 to 2030). The research found that: (1) Economic development and historical carbon emissions are important factors that affect the provincial decomposition of carbon emission reduction targets, showing the characteristics of stable carbon intensity reduction targets obtained from extreme ranked provinces. The carbon intensity reduction targets derived from non extreme provinces are affected by the principles of fairness, efficiency and feasibility at the same time. Some provinces have characteristics of different target groups under different situation preferences. (2) China's carbon peaking trend is stable, and the impact of external shocks on GDP growth has not changed the grouping results of carbon emission reduction targets of each province, so the provincial decomposition results of national emission reduction targets are generally stable. The results of this study will help provinces to formulate emission reduction targets flexibly to ensure the smooth realization of national emission reduction targets.