Proximity bias: Interactive effect of spatial distance and outcome valence on probability judgments

Abstract

Across a range of decision contexts, we provide evidence of a novel proximity bias in probability judgments, whereby spatial distance and outcome valence systematically interact in determining probability judgments. Six hypothetical and incentive‐compatible experiments (combined N = 4007) show that a positive outcome is estimated as more likely to occur when near than distant, whereas a negative outcome is estimated as less likely to occur when near than distant (studies 1–6). The proximity bias is explained by wishful thinking and thus perceptions of outcome desirability (study 3), and it does not manifest when an outcome is less relevant for the self, such as the case of outcomes with little consequence for the self (studies 4 and 5) or when estimating outcomes for others who are irrelevant to the self (study 6). Overall, the proximity bias we document deepens our understanding of the antecedents of probability judgments.

Blunted anticipation but not consummation of food rewards in depression

“…First, parsing reward behavior into different facets revealed differences between cued anticipation and consummation, but the strong effect of reward proximity on group differences was unexpected. Future research may systematically vary additional components such as proximity and probability or certainty of the reward outcome (Hong et al, 2024; Padrão et al, 2013; Treadway et al, 2009). Second, we assessed inter-individual differences in fasting levels of hormones and meal-related changes in hormone levels after the consummatory phase could reveal additional contributions to the regulation of reward function.…”