Psychological Antecedents of Political Outcomes: Joint Developmental Trajectories of Mental Health Difficulties

Abstract

Little is known about the link between childhood and adolescent mental health (MH) difficulties and political outcomes in adulthood. This represents an important knowledge gap in understanding early individual-level factors for future political outcomes. Using the Growing up in Ireland cohort, following 8,568 children from nine to 20 years, we examine how different MH difficulties, and co-occurrence, are associated with various political outcomes. The results show childhood/adolescent MH difficulties are important predictors of political outcomes at age 20. Adolescents with chronic co-occurring MH difficulties starting in childhood report a lower interest in politics, lower trust in politicians, are less likely to register to vote, and if voting, are more likely to vote for an anti-establishment party. Adolescents with chronic emotional MH difficulties starting in childhood report a higher likelihood of voting for an anti-establishment party, but also show a higher probability of political activism and low external political efficacy.