Psychologically Plausible Models in Agent-Based Simulations of Sustainable Behavior

Abstract

Agent-based modelling (ABM) proves successful as a methodology for the social sciences. To continue bridging the micro-macro link in social simulations and applying ABM in real-world conditions, conventional and often simplified models of decision-making have to be utilized and extended into psychologically plausible models. We demonstrate the contribution of such models to enhance validation and forecasts in social simulations with two examples concerned with sustainable behavior. We start with the Consumat framework to demonstrate the contribution of an established psychological plausible decision-making model in various scenarios of sustainable behavior. Then we use the SiMA-C model to explain how different psychological factors generate social behavior and show how a detailed model of decision-making supports realistic empirical validation and experimentation. A scenario of social media prompting of environmentalfriendly behavior exemplifies the details of how individual decision-making is influenced by the social context. Both examples, Consumat and SiMA-C, emphasize the importance of psychological realism in modelling behavioral dynamics for simulations of sustainable behavior and provide explanations on the psychological level that enable the development of social policies on the individual level.

Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models

“…Furthermore, some authors suggest that modellers should search for and engage with other (social) scientists studying decision-making (Meyfroidt, 2013;Schulze et al, 2017). This could improve plausibility of models with regard to farmers' behaviour from a psychological point of view (Schaat et al, 2017). The Venn diagram exercise during the workshop (Appendix C, Fig.…”

Cultural Evolution of Sustainable Behaviors: Pro-environmental Tipping Points in an Agent-Based Model

“…ABMs have previously been employed in studying the adoption of various sustainable behaviors and attitudes, 19 including models of norm transmission and evolution, 20,21 recycling, 22 traffic and transport, [23][24][25] farming, 26 energy and risk management, 27,28 and psychology. 29,30 Our contribution to this rapidly developing field is in developing a holistic systemic approach to the emergence of behavior as a subtle function of social, individual, and environmental factors by focusing explicitly on the emergent leverage points and tipping points. Our model illustrates both how system-level emergent phenomena constrain and enable individual and group behaviors and how individual and group behaviors can shape these constraints and affordances.…”

Modelling End-User Behavior and Behavioral Change in Smart Grids. An Application of the Model of Frame Selection

“…Section 3.5.4), we refrained from using it as an evaluation criterion for the simulation. Jager's Consumat approach [92], which tackles issues of need satisfaction in a more refined way, may constitute a useful starting point for further improvements of the model. Furthermore, other micro-level evaluations (e.g., agent-type specific behavioral changes and responses) should be taken into account in future experiments.…”

“…for example [44,45]); specifically, we refer to Esser's interpretation, the "model of sociological explanation" (MSE) [46] (pp. [91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99][100]. This basic model differentiates three analytical steps: First, actors on the micro-level perceive a (social) situation or structure on the macro-level ("Logic of the situation") [47] (p. 8).…”