Psychometric Properties of a Risk Tool Across Indigenous Māori and European Samples in Aotearoa New Zealand: Measurement Invariance, Discrimination, and Calibration for Predicting Criminal Recidivism

Abstract

Due to recent legal cases highlighting a lack of cross-ethnicity validity research using correctional risk assessment tools, we evaluated psychometric properties of Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) scores across Māori ( n = 1,812) and New Zealand (NZ) European samples ( n = 1,211) in Aotearoa NZ. Using routine administrative data, our analyses suggested scoring properties were invariant across ethnicity for 15 of 19 items. Discrimination properties were also equivalent, but we observed a higher recidivism base rate among Māori participants, consistent with official statistics. Consequently, calibration analyses using a fixed follow-up ( N = 372) demonstrated higher predicted recidivism rates for Māori participants at each DRAOR score. This suggests that Māori participants with similar levels of DRAOR-assessed need factors as NZ European participants experienced relatively greater continued justice contact. DRAOR users should prioritize delivering quality case management to clients, recognizing that both case-specific and systemic factors may underlie differential base rates.

Do Some Dynamic Risk Factors Signal Imminent Recidivism? Testing the Conceptual Distinction Between Stable and Acute Dynamic Risk Factors

“…As a further limitation, we did not conduct analyses separately across cultural groups. It is critical to examine cross-cultural invariance of effects, but this is beyond the scope of the current article; Coulter et al (2023) used similar datasets with DRAOR scores to report measurement invariance, discrimination, and calibration analyses across cultural groups.…”