Backgrounds
SARSâCoVâ2 is affecting different countries all over the world, with significant variation in infectionârate and deathâratio. We have previously shown a presence of a possible relationship between different variables including the Bacillus CalmetteâGuĂ©rin (BCG) vaccine, average age, gender, and malaria treatment, and the rate of spread, severity and mortality of COVIDâ19 disease. This paper focuses on developing machine learning models for this relationship.
Methods
We have used realâdatasets collected from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to develop a model from China data as the baseline country. From this model, we predicted and forecasted different countries' daily confirmedâcases and daily deathâcases and examined if there was any possible effect of the variables mentioned above.
Results
The model was trained based on China data as a baseline model for daily confirmedâcases and daily deathâcases. This machine learning application succeeded in modelling and forecasting daily confirmedâcases and daily deathâcases. The modelling and forecasting of viral spread resulted in four different regions; these regions were dependent on the malarial treatments, BCG vaccination, weather conditions, and average age. However, the lack of social distancing resulted in variation in the effect of these factors, for example, doubleâhumped spread and mortality cases curves and sudden increases in the spread and mortality cases in different countries.
The process of machine learning for timeâseries prediction and forecasting, especially in the pandemic COVIDâ19 domain, proved usefulness in modelling and forecasting the end status of the virus spreading based on specific regional and health support variables.
Conclusion
From the experimental results, we confirm that COVIDâ19 has a very low spread in the African countries with all the four variables (average young age, hot weather, BCG vaccine and malaria treatment); a very high spread in European countries and the USA with no variable (old people, cold weather, no BCG vaccine and no malaria). The effect of the variables could be on the spread or the severity to the extent that the infected subject might not have symptoms or the case is mild and can be missed as a confirmedâcase. Social distancing decreases the effect of these factors.