“…Equations (12)- (14) describe the final size of the outbreak, C. Here, Z(t) was the number of cases reported on day t. We then found the time, t, which gave us the first reported case of the outbreak (min t : Z(t) ≥ 1 ). Thus, on day τ, ε days after the first reported case, public health authorities stopped the spread of the outbreak by coordinating various activities such as press releases about the index case, isolation, school closures, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) administration [56]. The coordination of these activities generally takes time [56], thus we used a lag term, ε, to account for the delay.…”