Public health impacts of excess NO x emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany

153

Diesel cars have been emitting four to seven times more NO x in on-road driving than in type approval tests. These 'excess emissions' are a consequence of deliberate design of the vehicle's after-treatment system, as investigations during the 'Dieselgate' scandal have revealed. Here we calculate health and environmental impacts of these excess NO x emissions in all European countries for the year 2013. We use national emissions reported officially under the UNECE Convention for Long-range Transport of Atmospheric Pollutants and employ the EMEP MSC-W Chemistry Transport Model and the GAINS Integrated Assessment Model to determine atmospheric concentrations and resulting impacts. We compare with impacts from hypothetical emissions where light duty diesel vehicles are assumed to emit only as much as their respective type approval limit value or as little as petrol cars of the same age. Excess NO 2 concentrations can also have direct health impacts, but these overlap with the impacts from particulate matter (PM) and are not included here. We estimate that almost 10 000 premature deaths from PM 2.5 and ozone in the adult population (age >30 years) can be attributed to the NO x emissions from diesel cars and light commercial vehicles in EU28 plus Norway and Switzerland in 2013. About 50% of these could have been avoided if diesel limits had been achieved also in on-road driving; and had diesel cars emitted as little NO x as petrol cars, 80% of these premature deaths could have been avoided. Ecosystem eutrophication impacts (critical load exceedances) from the same diesel vehicles would also have been reduced at similar rates as for the health effects.

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Impact of excess NO _x emissions from diesel cars on air quality, public health and eutrophication in Europe

Jonson

Borken‐Kleefeld

Simpson

et al. 2017

153

“…vehicle speed, acceleration, and engine temperature) [62]. While most previous analyses make assumptions for NO x emissions to discern the impacts on air quality from defeat devices [29][30][31]35], we use directly measured emission data to study climate impacts, which are influenced by many relevant gases and aerosols. There are other emission data for diesel vehicles obtained from on-road measurements [8].…”

Section: Emission Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the particular VW case, human health studies estimated that the diesel vehicles with sophisticated software deployed have caused or will have caused a small, but positive number of deaths in the US: early deaths of approximately 59 persons with a 95% range of 4.6 to 130 during the violation period of 2008-2015 [29], 46 persons with a one sigma range of 40 to 52 for the same period [30], 5 to 50 persons per year [31], 59.2 persons during the violation period [20], and 12 persons for the same period (only in California) [32] (note that the limited treatments of uncertainties have been in dispute [33,34]). There are also a few studies investigating the health impacts in Europe [20,35,36]. From the climate perspective, this issue has been raised prior to the Paris Agreement [37] without however being substantiated by any quantitative analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate effects of non-compliant Volkswagen diesel cars

Tanaka

Lund

Aamaas

et al. 2018

On-road operations of Volkswagen light-duty diesel vehicles equipped with defeat devices cause emissions of NO x up to 40 times above emission standards. Higher on-road NO x emissions are a widespread problem not limited to Volkswagen vehicles, but the Volkswagen violations brought this issue under the spotlight. While several studies investigated the health impacts of high NO x emissions, the climatic impacts have not been quantified. Here we show that such diesel cars generate a larger warming on the time scale of several years but a smaller warming on the decadal time scale during actual on-road operations than in vehicle certification tests. The difference in longer-term warming levels, however, depends on underlying driving conditions. Furthermore, in the presence of defeat devices, the climatic advantage of 'clean diesel' cars over gasoline cars, in terms of global-mean temperature change, is in our view not necessarily the case.

“…Several studies have been published recently investigating the effect of NO x emissions from diesel vehicles, in some cases due to the VW emissions control defeat device, on air pollution and the implications for human health and social cost in the United States (Barrett et al 2015, Holland et al 2016, Wang et al 2016 and Europe (Brand 2016, Chossiere et al 2017, as well as addressing the issues more generally (Rojas-Rueda and Turner 2016). The studies focused on the US estimate that 46 and 59 excess deaths and ca.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, one study evaluated the effects for California and found that the additional 'hidden' NO x emissions (difference between the actual on-road NO x emission factor and the testing emission factor) would result in 12 excess deaths during the same 2009-2015 time period as the US studies, with the majority of the increase in mortality in metropolitan areas (Wang et al 2016). In work that parallels the US study by Barrett et al (2015), Chossiere et al (2017) estimated the cost of excess NO x emissions from VW vehicles in Germany to be 1200 premature deaths (1.9 billion EUR) in Europe. The study by Brand (2016) highlights the potential trade-offs between human health and climate change mitigation in policies related to diesel vehicles in the UK (not just those affected by the defeat device), showing that the excess NO x emissions from diesel vehicles are significant and that the benefit to air quality in reducing these emissions would be much larger and outweigh any of the few potential carbon disbenefits, based on a comparison of damage costs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential reductions in ambient NO ₂ concentrations from meeting diesel vehicle emissions standards

Schneidemesser

Kuik

Mar

et al. 2017

Exceedances of the concentration limit value for ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) at roadside sites are an issue in many cities throughout Europe. This is linked to the emissions of light duty diesel vehicles which have on-road emissions that are far greater than the regulatory standards. These exceedances have substantial implications for human health and economic loss. This study explores the possible gains in ambient air quality if light duty diesel vehicles were able to meet the regulatory standards (including both emissions standards from Europe and the United States). We use two independent methods: a measurement-based and a model-based method. The city of Berlin is used as a case study. The measurement-based method used data from 16 monitoring stations throughout the city of Berlin to estimate annual average reductions in roadside NO 2 of 9.0 to 23 g m −3 and in urban background NO 2 concentrations of 1.2 to 2.7 g m −3 . These ranges account for differences in fleet composition assumptions, and the stringency of the regulatory standard. The model simulations showed reductions in urban background NO 2 of 2.0 g m −3 , and at the scale of the greater Berlin area of 1.6 to 2.0 g m −3 depending on the setup of the simulation and resolution of the model. Similar results were found for other European cities. The similarities in results using the measurement-and model-based methods support our ability to draw robust conclusions that are not dependent on the assumptions behind either methodology. The results show the significant potential for NO 2 reductions if regulatory standards for light duty diesel vehicles were to be met under real-world operating conditions. Such reductions could help improve air quality by reducing NO 2 exceedances in urban areas, but also have broader implications for improvements in human health and other benefits.