Public health response to COVID-19: the forecaster’s dilemma

Naumova, Elena N.

doi:10.1057/s41271-020-00252-z

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The effectiveness of Telepsychiatry is well documented in the medical literature (Chakrabarti, 2015;Cowan et al, 2019;O'Brien & McNicholas, 2020). According to similar studies, patients' satisfaction seems to be based on domains such as access, timeliness, and safety.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

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Satisfaction with Telepsychiatry during the COVID-19 pandemic: Patients’ and psychiatrists’ report from a University Hospital

Torales

Vilallba-Arias

Bogado

et al. 2022

Int J Soc Psychiatry

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to important changes in the approach to patients worldwide. Different agencies have proposed and implemented telemedicine-based care services in order to ensure access to health care for all people. Aim: The aim of this study was to determine the satisfaction of patients using the Telepsychiatry service offered by the Department of Psychiatry of the Hospital de Clínicas (National University of Asunción, Paraguay). Methods: A cross sectional and descriptive study has been conducted. Participants were recruited through a phone-based survey. Satisfaction with Telepsychiatry has been measured with an adapted version of a satisfaction survey in Teleneurology. As a complement, psychiatrists from the Hospital de Clínicas were also interviewed about their rate of satisfaction with Telepsychiatry. Results: A total of 530 patients were included, 51.3% of whom were women. The consultation satisfaction scale ranged between 2.15 and 4.30 with a mean score of 3.02 ± 0.32. Cronbach’s alpha for the scale was .897, indicating a good internal consistency. Patients’ satisfaction was higher for the perception of Telepsychiatry and lower for the doctor-patient relationship. Of the physicians, 87.5% were satisfied with the Telepsychiatry service. Conclusion: The satisfaction overall score indicates patients’ general satisfaction with the quality of care in Telepsychiatry, mainly regarding the perception of health care. and lower satisfaction with the doctor-patient relationship. Nine out of 10 psychiatrists felt satisfied with the Telepsychiatry service and considered that the degree of patient’s satisfaction was acceptable during the Telepsychiatry consultation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…The COVID-19 pandemic has led to important changes in the approach to patients’ care worldwide (Naumova, 2020). Different agencies have proposed and implemented telemedicine-based services in order to ensure access to health care for all people (Chen et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satisfaction with Telepsychiatry during the COVID-19 pandemic: Patients’ and psychiatrists’ report from a University Hospital

Torales

Vilallba-Arias

Bogado

et al. 2022

Int J Soc Psychiatry

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“…Beyond statistics, data analytics, and modeling, multidisciplinary communication strategies, solutions, and sociopolitical implementation dialog are needed to make forecast actionable. 46,47…”

Section: Next Stepsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Seasonal Acute Malnutrition: Setting the Framework

N. Naumova

2023

Food Nutr Bull

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Background: Malnutrition is an umbrella term that refers to an impairment in nutrition indicative of subsequently compromised human well-being. The term covers the full spectrum of nutritional impairments from a small yet detectable departure from a “norm” to a terminal stage when severe malnutrition could result in death. This broad spectrum of nutritional departures from “the optimum” dictates the need for an ensemble of metrics to capture the complexity of involved mechanisms, risk factors, precipitating events, short-term, and long-term consequences. Ideally, these metrics should be universally applicable to vulnerable populations, settings, ages, and times when people are most susceptible to malnutrition. We should be able to characterize and intervene to minimize the risk of malnutrition, especially child acute malnutrition that could be assessed by anthropometric measurements. Objectives: The main challenge in reaching such an ambitious goal is the complexity of measuring, characterizing, explaining, predicting, and preventing malnutrition at any dimension: temporal or spatial and at any scale: a person or a group. The expansive body of literature has been accumulated on many temporal aspects of malnutrition and seasonal changes in nutritional (anthropometric) status. The research community is now shifting their attention to predictive modeling of child malnutrition and its importance for clinical and public health interventions. This communication aims to provide an overview of challenges for understanding child malnutrition from a perspective of predictive modeling focusing on well-documented seasonal variations in nutritional outcomes and exploring “the systems approach” to tackle underlining conceptual and practical complexities to forecast seasonal malnutrition in an accurate and timely manner. This generalized approach to forecasting seasonal malnutrition is then applied specifically to child acute malnutrition.

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“…Estimates and predictions thus reflect the latest information via updating according to data collection and the latest prior information. Frequent updating of the uncertainty is important to modeling COVID‐19 because of the rapid changes of COVID‐19 incidence (Naumova, 2020; Williamson et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting and mapping of COVID‐19 risk with application to West Java Province, Indonesia

Jaya

Folmer

2021

Journal of Regional Science

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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly to multiple countries including Indonesia. Mapping its spatiotemporal pattern and forecasting (small area) outbreaks are crucial for containment and mitigation strategies. Hence, we introduce a parsimonious space-time model of new infections that yields accurate forecasts but only requires information regarding the number of incidences and population size per geographical unit and time period.Model parsimony is important because of limited knowledge regarding the causes of COVID-19 and the need for rapid action to control outbreaks. We outline the basics of Bayesian estimation, forecasting, and mapping, in particular for the identification of hotspots. The methodology is applied to county-level data of West Java Province, Indonesia.

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Public health response to COVID-19: the forecaster’s dilemma

Cited by 9 publications

References 3 publications

Satisfaction with Telepsychiatry during the COVID-19 pandemic: Patients’ and psychiatrists’ report from a University Hospital

Satisfaction with Telepsychiatry during the COVID-19 pandemic: Patients’ and psychiatrists’ report from a University Hospital

Forecasting Seasonal Acute Malnutrition: Setting the Framework

Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting and mapping of COVID‐19 risk with application to West Java Province, Indonesia

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