Public opinion and consociationalism in Northern Ireland: Towards the ‘end stage’ of the power-sharing lifecycle?

Abstract

Consociationalism’s uneven performance has focussed attention on the (possible) end stage of power-sharing systems. Northern Ireland, once lauded a consociational success, is now discussed among consociational failures. We use new public opinion data to assess consociationalism in Northern Ireland from a citizen’s perspective, exploring support for, trust in, and knowledge of power-sharing. We show that public attachment to the principles of power-sharing is higher than might be expected, despite dissatisfaction with the practical operation of the institutions. Whilst trust in the Assembly is low, trust in some Executive ministers is higher. The results from a political knowledge test are suggestive of healthy (if critical) political engagement. Support for power-sharing is, however, lopsided vis-à-vis the region’s two ethnonational communities. Citizens therefore offer a mixed verdict which, while not a ringing endorsement of the status quo, does not suggest the end of power-sharing. Assessments of power-sharing elsewhere could make similar use of public opinion.