Public Opinion and Death Penalty Policy Under Direct Democracy Institutions: A Longitudinal Analysis of the American States

Abstract

Capital punishment remains legal in most U.S. states even though only a small number of them regularly impose it. I attribute the persistence of death penalty statutes to the existence of direct democracy institutions in about half the states. Applying a longitudinal research design that leverages annual estimates of state death penalty opinion, I show that these institutions strengthen the connection between public opinion and capital punishment’s legality, indicating that they foster policy responsiveness. By extension, because citizens have generally favored capital punishment, I find that direct democracy states are more likely to have the death penalty. I also demonstrate that direct democracy increases the likelihood that policy will be congruent with majority opinion, especially in states where opinion leans strongly in one direction. The representation-enhancing effect of direct democracy, however, does not extend to the punishment’s application, as measured by states’ issuance of death sentences.

Symbolic laws, de facto abolitions and path dependence: When death penalty policies remain stable

“…Second, even when the prospect of executions is remote, death penalty laws affect the criminal justice system. For example, the threat of a death sentence may encourage defendants to agree to a harsher plea deal than they otherwise would have (Caron, 2021, p.103). Moreover, the death penalty tilts sentencing towards severity and harshness, anchoring a punitive approach (Simon, 2014), and, for instance, making a life sentence only the second most severe penalty.…”