Public policy and economic dynamics of COVID-19 spread: a mathematical modeling study

Abstract

With the COVID-19 pandemic infecting millions of people, large-scale quarantine policies have been enacted across the globe. To assess the impact of quarantine measures on deaths, hospitalizations, and economic output, we expand the classical SEIR model to simulate the spread of COVID-19, incorporating effects of restrictive measures and segmenting the population based on health risk and economic vulnerability. For 76 weeks in a population of 330 million, we simulate a baseline scenario leaving current quarantine restrictions in place, rapidly reducing quarantine restrictions for non-seniors shortly after outbreak containment, and gradually relaxing quarantine restrictions for non-seniors. In the baseline scenario, there are 207,906 deaths and the economy shrinks by 34.0%. With a rapid relaxation, a second outbreak takes place, with 788,815 deaths, and the economy shrinks by 28.2%. With a gradual relaxation, there are 221,743 deaths, and the economy shrinks by 29.4%. Additionally, hospitalizations, deaths, and economic output are quite sensitive to disease spread by asymptomatic people. Strict restrictions on seniors with very gradual lifting of quarantine for non-seniors results in a limited number of deaths and lesser economic damage. Therefore, we recommend this strategy and measures that reduce non-quarantined disease spread to control the pandemic while making quarantine economically viable.

The Cycle of Money - Escape Savings and the Minimum Financial Liquidity

“…Should be mentioned that as uncontrolled transactions are considered the same happens with the cases of the financial liquidity of citizens and the small and middle size companies. Moreover, there are three basic impact factors of the rewarding taxes (Azar et al, 2018;Chubarova et al, 2020;Goldsztejn et al, 2020b;Kreft & Sobel, 2005;Mackean et al, 2020;Mohindra, 2007;Soboleva I.V., 2019;"The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy," 1994;Turner, 2010;Tydir N.I., 2019;Wilson & Gowdy, 2013). The rewarding taxes are the only taxes that have an immediate and important role in the market of any economy.…”

Impact Factor of Cost Using the Sensitivity Method

“…The parameter of r is about the risk, the t is about how much trustworthy is the tax system from the view of cost (Arabyan, 2016;Arbel et al, 2019;Camous & Gimber, 2018;J. Campos et al, 2019;Chubarova et al, 2020;de A. Dantas et al, 2018;de Vasconcelos et al, 2019;Farah, 2011;Goldsztejn et al, 2020bGoldsztejn et al, , 2020aHartz & John, 2009;Herrington, 2015;Islam et al, 2020;Jia et al, 2020;Kartini et al, 2019;Lajas & Macário, 2020;Martinez & Rodríguez, 2020;Marume, 2016;Nash et al, 2017;Noland, 2020;Peres et al, 2020;Torres & Riaño-Casallas, 2018;Tummers, 2019). This means that examines the case of the sensitivity of the tax system to the cost.…”

Impact Factor of Capital Using the Sensitivity Method

“…The parameter of r is about the risk, the t is about how much trustworthy is the tax system from the view of capital (Arabyan, 2016;Arbel et al, 2019;Camous & Gimber, 2018;J. Campos et al, 2019;Chubarova et al, 2020;de A. Dantas et al, 2018;de Vasconcelos et al, 2019;Farah, 2011;Goldsztejn et al, 2020bGoldsztejn et al, , 2020aHartz & John, 2009;Herrington, 2015;Islam et al, 2020;Jia et al, 2020;Kartini et al, 2019;Lajas & Macário, 2020;Martinez & Rodríguez, 2020;Marume, 2016;Nash et al, 2017;Noland, 2020;Peres et al, 2020;Torres & Riaño-Casallas, 2018;Tummers, 2019). This means that examines the case of the sensitivity of the tax system to the capital.…”