Public Transport Demand Elasticities in Developing Agglomerations: The Case of Tunisian Regions

Abstract

This paper examined the characteristics of public transport demand in some major Tunisian cities. It followed the research trend which calculated the public transport demand elasticities. The adopted procedure in this study consists in estimating a log linear dynamic panel model relating per capita bus patronage to bus fares, users’ income, and service quality. Two variants of the basic model were estimated for the most important Tunisian agglomerations for the period 2003-2020. In the first variant, this paper considered the same fare elasticity value for the different regions, whereas in the second it’s proceeded to the calculation of specific fare elasticity values for each region. The estimation results show interesting and different elasticities compared to those revealed by earlier studies for occidental agglomerations. This result can be explained by specifics users’ characteristics and networks’ configuration. Although these results may sometimes contradict the theoretical suggestions, they still highlight the specificities of the public transport demand in Tunisia and its users’ characteristics. The demand for public transport in large Tunisian agglomerations is not very sensitive to fares changes. Second, income does not have the same effect as that advocated by economic theories. Indeed, we have found a positive impact of income on demand for public transport. Finally, the quality of service has the most important effect on demand. Changes in travel habits and cultures, improvements in the quality of services and their differentiation can be more effective for public transport than fares changes.